Hammer Em’ Home 5 - NFL 2024 Week 1
We are so back!
Welcome back to the best time of the year. California fall is like no other in terms of the weather, and it’s the season full of incredible storylines and narratives within our favorite sports as a country: football and basketball.
Loaded Coverage is back in business and full throttle, and we’re covering the science behind Vegas’ magic hold on sports. Let’s begin that study with Max’s best bets (spread only) for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season.
Jets +4 | New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers
Aaron Rodgers at Jets Training Camp in 2024
If there’s a time for the 49ers to stumble and for Vegas to get some value out of this Jets team, it is now. Trent Williams, Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffery have all been taken care of financially, but coming out of training camp, this team will experience some additional hurdles than teams with less in-house distractions. We’ll see if Aiyuk can immediately reignite his connection with Brock, which is one worth of a 2nd team All-Pro as the 2023 NFL season showed, and if the time Trent and Christian missed will create hiccups in the offense. On the other side of the ball, the Jets have been roaring and ready to go throughout this offseason, and this team has been waiting for their opportunity to make noise since Aaron Rodgers got back from Egypt, healthy as can be. A Jets team that won 7 games with arguably the worst quarterback room of the decade in 2023 (Tim Boyle, Zach Wilson and Chris Streveler, all no longer on the roster), is back healthy with their Hall of Fame Quarterback, and pro bowl worthy athletes littered across the roster. There’s no better time to take the points with the Jets.
Colts +3 | Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson at the 2023 NFL Combine
Underdogs between 1-5.5 points in Week 1 cover at a 64% clip since 2018, a sample size of almost 150 games, and 58% over the past decade. Favorites of 1-3.5 points only cover 43% of games in September, based on a sample size of 550 games. A divisional game at home for the Colts as a +3 underdog fits the bill for our statistical advantage, alongside division rivals having an advantage at home. Anthony Richardson is an exiting unknown I’m willing to exercise towards the beginning of the season.
Panthers +3.5 | Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Bryce Young at the podium for the Carolina Panthers in 2023
The hidden gem of 2024, the Carolina Panthers. We’re looking at an organization with an improved offensive line, a major upgrade at coach and staff overall, and a receiving core that is night and day in comparison to last year. The Saints with Derek Carr and Dennis Allen are a walking revenant, a combination that won’t make it towards the final game of the season. Either Spencer Rattler with be taking snaps, or Dennis Allen will be canned by the end of the season. New Orleans isn’t big enough for both Derek and Dennis; it may not be big enough for either of them.
Vikings -1 | Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants
Justin Jefferson VS the Detroit Lions
Two of the worst teams this year in football connect at the beginning of the season, how fun! Games like these for roster that feature both Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold at quarterback are huge for the outlooks of their futures. Daniel Jones has no room to not look proficient at quarterback this year with low expectations for the team externally, and this is truly Sam Darnold’s last chance to be a starting quarterback in the National Football League. I’m betting on the latter who also features Justin Jefferson as a receiver. I can’t attach myself to Daniel Jones, it’s a bit too painful when you’re putting your own chips on the table.
Detroit -4.5 | LA Rams @ Detriot Lions
Detroit Lions Quarterback Jared Goff
Bet on Detroit and Jared Goff playing in a dome all season. On a normal sunny Sunday, I would be taking the points for the underdog at home, almost regardless of who the team is, taking the statisticall advantage mentioned above discussing the Colts. But there’s no better version of the Detroit Lions than Jared Goff playing in great weather or at home under the dome. The Rams finally get to experience life without the blessing and honor of having future Pro Football Hall of Famer Aaron Donald playing defensive tackle for this roster. The dangers of Cooper Kupp coming back to full form is real, and Matt Stafford is a super bowl champion for a reason, but I feel great about Detriot’s super powered team this year, especially early in the season.