Max and Kev’s Hammer Em’ Home 5: Week 17
All odds sourced by The Action Network as of 1/1/2022 2:00PM PST
Happy New Year! We’re gearing towards the playoffs after a long NFL season. We need to soak in as much football as we can before we’re left to rot in the offseason, as football is life. Kevin and I both give our favorite bets for the week, provide counterarguments towards each other’s picks, and even came together on a pick that was too good to argue against.
Maxwell and Kevin’s “Honey, I bet the House” Pick:
Denver +7.5 @ Chargers | 45% of the Bets | 91% of the $$ |
KC - The Chargers should be a much better team than they actually are. The biggest problem that they have is that they cannot stop the run at all. Rex Burkhead and the Texans couldn’t run the ball to save their lives, and then the Chargers come to town and Rex goes for 149 on 6.77 yards per carry. The Broncos aren’t some great rushing team, but the Texans are one of the worst in the league and Rex Burkhead just dominated these guys. I like Brandon Staley as a coach, but he was hired as a defensive minded coach and the Chargers defense is not good. Herbert is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but the Broncos defense is among the best in the league. They’re allowing the least points per game in the entire league and they have a better turnover differential than the Chargers. Drew Lock is a high risk high reward kind of player, but with the weakness of the Chargers defense, if he has just a decent game I think the Broncos win this game and basically eliminate the Chargers from playoff contention. I like Herbert and the Chargers, but I think their defense fails them. I’ll take the extra points but I think the Broncos win this one outright with a score of 27-20.
ME - This is one where we come together as a family to hold our nose, cause it's time to bet on Drew f*****g Lock. The prime points of emphasis for this slip is the key number of 7 has been passed In a Divisional Matchup. Vic Vangio's defense is one of Justin Herbert's nightmares, as bright as the young QB is. In their last meeting, Vangio managed to hold the Chargers to 13 points and forced two interceptions out of the young phenom. This cover will be predicated on Vangio's defense holding it together, and the Broncos running game attacking one of the worst run defenses in football, a strong indictment against rookie head coach Brandon Staley, formerly defensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Rams. I don't think the Broncos sweep the series; however they keep it close and cover 17-20. Drew Lock won't have enough In the tank to pull off the upset, or else I'd sprinkle some on the moneyline too.
Maxwell’s Hammer Em’ Home 5: (+1 Honey, I Bet the House)
CIN +5 VS Chiefs | 47% of the Bets | 39% of the $$ |
ME - The Chiefs are riding high on an 8-game winning streak, as the defense has taken good form in the last 2 months, and the offense is finally beginning to wake up. Coached by Andy Reid and led by Patrick Mahomes dishing to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, the Kansas City Chiefs are exactly where most would expect them to be every season, leading the AFC West and pushing towards the No.1 Seed in the AFC. The Chiefs have uncharacteristically covered their large spreads (over three points) as the favorite religiously these past two months. It won't hold forever, as this Cincinnati Bengals team is playing for their opportunity to enter the playoffs under the new regime of Zac Taylor and Joe Burrow. Cincinnati in their youth has been one of the most productive teams in football. Ranking 6th overall in PFF's team ranking, led by their electric passing attack featuring Jamarr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and C.J Uzomah. Their running game when used properly allows them to control the clock with Joe Mixon, who's emerging as one of the best running backs in football. My main concern for this game isn't the fact that Kansas City will find a way to score points at a dangerous rate, even though that hasn't always been the case this season. My concern is the Bengals porous offensive line play that both Joe's have found a way to maneuver. The offensive line unit is ranked 30th in sacks allowed and is graded via PFF as the 25th ranked unit in football. If Chris Jones and the Chiefs have their way with this offensive line, the cover will be tough, but I like the Bengals explosive offense at home. I'm calling for the upset, Bengals win this game in what will be a shocker for the world, but not for me. 31-27 Bengals.
KC - I like the Bengals a lot as a football team. They have a young and explosive offense full of studs and that makes it hard to root against them. But that youth is why I would have trouble confidently picking them over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are experienced and have been one of the best teams in the league for years. It feels like they’re having a down year and even now, they have 11 wins with two games left to play. The Bengals definitely have a shot in this game, but the Bengals defense is allowing the fourth most passing yards per game in the league and that is something that Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs will look to exploit. This game is almost certainly going to be a shootout and I am going to predict that overtime decides this game, with the Chiefs winning 30-24.
Tampa -13 @ Jets | 83% of the Bets | ??% of the $$ |
ME - Not too much to dissect here. The Jets have every reason to want to lose this game for their future, and the Bucs along with Brady have every reason to want to win it. Tom Brady, formerly the Patriots legend, has own the New York Jets for his entire career, minus the Mark Sanchez double AFC-Championship run. Robert Salah just wants to get across the finish line, Zach Wilson wants to move on from a rookie year filled with trials, tribulations and struggle, meanwhile the Bucs want the 1-seed in the NFC, forcing all teams to come to warm-weather Florida to deal with Tom and the boys. This is a blowout, Antonio Brown may have over 200 yards to reach his contractual bonus, Bucs win 38-13.
KC - The Buccaneers are going to win this football game. There’s no doubt about that in my mind. The question is if the Jets can put up enough points in garbage time to cover the spread. This is honestly a pretty small spread for this matchup, all things considered. The Jets are awful on offense and defense and their only real hope is that Tampa overlooks them the way that Arizona overlooked Detroit a couple weeks ago. I could find hundreds of stats supporting the Buccaneers winning this game and covering the spread and honestly, they most likely will. However, this is an “any given Sunday” kind of league. I’ll take the risk and go against the facts on this one. I think the Jets chip into the Buccaneers blowout late in the game to steal a backdoor cover, with a final score of 35-24.
PIT +3.5 VS Browns | 64% of the Bets | 97% of the $$ |
ME - Big Ben's final game in Heinz Field! As much as I've had my moments not appreciating Big Ben in the 2nd half of his stellar career, it was an absolute pleasure to be able to watch him for over half my life. He's a staple of the NFL, a Steelers Legend and one of the best Quarterbacks of our generation. This current version of Ben is a shell of the Hall of Famer you will see highlighted in his ceremony, however I still have the Steelers winning this game off the strength of Mike Tomlin and Big Ben in an emotional game. The Browns, albeit carrying one of the most talented rosters in football, are led by an injured Baker Mayfield who at the young age of 26, is dealing with more injuries than some QBs in their 30s. Baker threw four interceptions, almost five against the Packers, and then still backdoor covered in a 22-24 loss in the contest. The team is extremely talented, but worst case scenario, the Steeler's defense and efforts to run the ball on offense should not only produce a score that covers, but I think the Steelers win this game. If there was ever a Ra-Ra Mike Tomlin moment, this is it. Steelers win an ugly one, 20-17. Can't personally call this much of an upset, to be honest.
KC - This is one that I feel pretty confident about for the Browns covering. Ben Roethlisberger is currently grading out as the 32nd Passing QB out of 37 graded quarterbacks, according to PFF. And on top of that, the Steelers can’t run the ball, they rush for the 4th least rushing yards per game in the league. If their quarterback stinks and they can’t run the ball, it is going to be hard for them to score against a top notch defense. The Browns obviously have their own quarterback problem, but their defense kicks ass and they can run the football as effectively as anyone else in the league. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Big Ben rack up some passing stats in the 4th quarter when the game is out of reach, but I don’t see Pittsburgh doing enough to cover this game. The Browns run the ball and control the clock en route to a 21-10 victory.
Saints -6.5 Vs Carolina | 58% of the Bets | 88% of the $$ |
ME - The Saints are coming off one of their more embarrassing losses on the season due to COVID. Ian Book was forced to take snaps under center in primetime, and the result was a tad bit worse than expected, and expectations were very low. Miami enjoyed a night of running Engage Eight and Cover 0 versus a quarterback who was in a position most players would fail in. They look to rebound at home versus a Panthers team who has entirely lost their way. Matt Rhule views himself as Jay-Z in a seven year process. Cam Newton is beyond a shell of his former self and it's heartbreaking as a longtime supporter, and Sam Darnold is a backup. This Saints defense should have no problem holding the Panthers to one of their worst performances of the season, to the point that I'm not overly concerned about who's even under center for Sean Payton. I'll surrender these points against a horrible Panthers team all day. Saints win 20-6.
KC - I would actually like this pick a lot if the spread was just a little bit smaller. The Panthers are losing it and Matt Rhule thinks he’s Jay Z so I don’t really see the Panthers winning this game. However, it’s going to be Sam Darnold vs Taysom Hill in this game and I cannot confidently put my money in the hands of either of these human beings. This is a game where two good defenses are facing off against two bad offenses. Anything can happen here, but 6.5 is too wide of a spread for me to be comfortable with for Taysom Hill and the Saints. Darnold has been pretty bad, but if he can play like he did at the start of the season where the Panthers won three in a row (one of those wins coming against the Saints) then the Panthers should be able to do just enough to cover the spread and maybe even win the game. I think the Saints probably win with the Panthers covering 24-20.
Kevin’s Hammer Em’ Home 5: (+1 Honey, I Bet the House)
Texans @ SF| 73% of the Bets | 1% of the $$
KC - As a Texans fan, I have avoided betting on the Texans for most of the season, but I’m changing that this week. Davis Mills is starting to look like a competent quarterback even though his surrounding talent is pretty weak compared to the rest of the league. Maybe I am overreacting to the upset win over the Chargers with 10 Texans starters on the COVID list, but the Texans have some momentum and are facing off against a rookie quarterback making just his second start this season. They’re still awful against the run and I could see Trey Lance doing a fair amount of damage on the ground, but in the one game he started this season, he was only able to complete just 51% of his passes. If the Texans are able to force an interception or two, as they did with Justin Herbert, I can see them keeping this game close at the very least. Now I would still guess the 49ers win the game, given how well they run the ball. As I said, the Texans are terrible against the run, allowing almost 6 yards a carry and two touchdowns to Chargers backup Justin Jackson last week. When it’s all said and done, I expect the 49ers to have a lot of rushing success but a big mistake or two from Trey Lance helps the Texans cover the spread, with the 49ers winning 21-17.
ME - It's a great point to be made that Trey Lance could find a way to pull a rook and allow this game to be close, however I think Kyle Shanahan understands the significance of this game, albeit against the lowly Texans. The Niners unfortunately are a decent team with a great running game and strong pass rush. The Chargers came into their contest down several key starters, including Austin Ekeler and Corey Linsley, and several defenders. Pair that with the fact that they produced little pass rush and no run defense, and they've earned themselves the right to lose. I think the Texans are favored by the public heavily for reasons you've mentioned here, however this outcome will favor the Niners spread. Kyle Shanahan is the imposter if he finds himself in a close game with the Texans.
Cardinals +6 VS Cowboys | 43% of the Bets | 19% of the $$
KC - I know the Cardinals are on a three-game losing streak and I know Kliff Kingsbury’s teams have a history of fizzling out towards the end of the season, but I cannot overlook the Cardinals as a 6-point underdog. The Dallas Cowboys are coming off of a dominant win against a divisional opponent, destroying the Washington Football Team with a score of 56-14. But it’s the Washington Football Team. The Arizona Cardinals are not the Washington Football Team. If you look at the Cowboys games this season, they’ve beat up on a lot of lesser opponents, but they play close games against good teams. The Cowboys are the top offensive team in football in yards per game and points per game, but I am not ready to write off the Cardinals yet. The Cardinals are still in the top 10 in both offense and defense and have a dynamic quarterback. I don’t know how confident I feel about the Cardinals winning this game, but at the very least they will keep it close. If I had to guess, I’ll have the Cowboys winning this game 30-27.
ME - Lord have mercy, Kliff F*****g Kingsbury, the man we fade in Mid-November till seasons end. There comes a point where a trend is more than just analytics, and the proof is in the pudding. One can build an incredibly ugly case against Kliff Kingsbury by looking at how his teams have finished the season every year, dating back to his Texas Tech days:
2013: 1-5 Texas Tech
2014: 2-8
2015: 2-4
2016: 2-6
2017: 2-6
2018: 0-5
2019: 2-7 Cardinals
2020: 2-5
2021: 3-5, with the Red-hot Cowboys next.
We pair these findings with the fact that Kyler Murray, regardless of his world-class talent, is a miniature football player at 5'9 and 195lbs. Contact he faces builds up harder than other NFL QBs and athletes in general, and we've seen consistently through his three seasons as a pro that he racks up nicks and injuries in November and December, plaguing is performances. Per betting culture and analytics in a vacuum, Cardinals are absolutely the sharp side. However, this Cardinals team is slowly rolling down a Kliff (get it), and I won't be joining them. I wouldn't bet such a large number on the Cowboys either, the most public team in sports. I'm staying away.
Eagles -4.5 @ Washington | 64% of the Bets | 4% of the $$
KC - The Eagles are on a roll right now and the Washington Football Team is on the opposite of a roll. Philadelphia has won three games in a row and Washington has lost three games in a row. The Eagles have a legit offense. They’re top 10 in points per game and have the 6th best offense according to PFF. Washington on the other hand, has allowed the third most points per game on defense. Washington’s offense isn’t very good either, coming in as a bottom 10 unit. I don’t have much to say about this one, I just think the Eagles are going to beat up on Washington. Maybe not the 56-14 whooping that they just took last Sunday night, but I see the Eagles covering this one easily, winning the game 33-13.
ME - From the research I've done this week, sharps love this number for Washington, and the reasons why make sense, but I'll take the outlook straight from the football team. The Eagles are the better team coming into this contest; however, this team can still be suspect to a somewhat incomplete passing game, and a defense that has been okay at best this season. I'm not going to sit here on New Year’s and defend the Washington Football Team however, they're a bad franchise, in lots of COVID trouble, and I'd be lying through my keyboard.
Browns -3 @ Pit | 60% of the Bets | 32% of the $$
KC - I am well aware that Baker Mayfield stinks right now. He threw 4 interceptions against the Packers on Christmas in an embarrassing performance. However, he threw 4 interceptions and the Browns only lost by 2 points. Four turnovers and they were still a field goal away from winning, against one of the best teams in the NFL. I think that speaks to the talent and strength of the rest of the Browns roster. Their defense is top 10, and they have one of, if not the best, running games in the league. They are so good around the quarterback that they don’t even need Baker Mayfield to play mistake-free football, they just need him to not fail catastrophically. The Steelers have no business being a 7-win football team, but somehow, they are. Big Ben stinks, Baker stinks, this game is going to come down to running the football. And in that respect, the Steelers are allowing the most rushing yards per game in the NFL while the Browns are rushing for the third most rushing yards per game. The Steelers also can’t run the ball themselves, rushing for just 87.6 yards per game. The Steelers might make this one close in garbage time, but I think the Browns control the game and win 21-10.
ME - The Browns have every reason to be favored in this game, but I'm choosing the ever-so-rare emotional side of the bet and going to Ra-Ra Mike Tomlin and Big Ben in his final game at Heinz Field. There's something off about Baker's psyche to me this season. He's often overflowing with confidence, earned in Highschool and College but not the pros, which is fine to me. This season, through trial and tribulation, it's been noticeable that he's not himself on and off the field. The Browns are 7-8, Andrew Berry is not pleased with Baker's performance, who he did not draft, but inherited, as the rest of the roster is prime for a playoff run. Baker's dealt with a multitude of injuries this season, and he's still not healthy. I think a Steelers win here to close out the season for an extremely disappointing Browns team feels very appropriate.