The State of the NFC 2021: The Home Stretch
In this article, Team Loaded comes together to breakdown the current state of the NFC with 15 weeks of football complete. How have teams arrived at this point, and what comes next?
NFC North - Kevin Coffee
Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers are sitting pretty atop the NFC North at 10-3 and just need one more win to clinch a division title this season. They’re currently in possession of the number one seed for the NFC and are in the driver’s seat to get the first round playoff bye. The Packers are actually in as strong of a position in the playoff race as they are because of their defense. Obviously they have a great offense, but their defense has been a standout group this season, allowing the 7th least points per game this season and coming in as the 4th ranked defense according to PFF. They don’t have too many standout players on their defense, but they all mesh well as a unit and play sound football. Any Aaron Rodgers led offense is going to be successful, especially so when he has the top receiver in football with Davante Adams and a running back as talented as Aaron Jones. Their offense has actually only been a slightly above average group so far this year, but with their strong play on the defensive side of the ball, the Packers are in control of their own destiny in the NFC.
I see the Packers ending up as the number 2 seed in the NFC. They’ll win in the first round of the playoffs against the third wildcard team who I believe will be the Washington Football Team and then fall short when they face the Cardinals in the divisional round. They did beat the Cardinals earlier this season, but it came down to a last second turnover by Kyler Murray where the Cardinals very easily could have come away with a victory. I think the Cardinals will come back hungry and do just enough to win this time. When the Packers get knocked out in the divisional round, I believe that Aaron Rodgers time as a Packer will come to an end and they’ll spend the next season figuring out if Jordan Love is the guy or not.
The teams left on the Packers schedule in the regular season are Baltimore, Cleveland, Minnesota and Detroit and in my prediction, I have them losing to Cleveland but winning the rest of their remaining games. That said, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they beat Cleveland, but it just isn’t easy for an NFL team to win 6 games in a row to close out the season. The Packers might find a way to win out and clinch the number one seed, but they’ll have to bring their offense up to at least a top 10 unit in the league to have a shot. I really don’t see any way that they find their way to the Super Bowl after watching them fall short in the playoffs for the past 10 years.
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are having a heartbreaking rollercoaster of a season. All of their losses this season have been by just one score and four of those losses have been by 3 points or less. The strength of the Vikings this year has been their offense. In his second year in the league, Justin Jefferson is establishing himself as one of the best receivers in the league. Jefferson is second in the league in receiving yards and is leading the league in receptions of 20+ yards. Dalvin Cook remains one of the best running backs in football and is third in the league in rushing despite missing 3 games. Kirk Cousins is having an under-the-radar good season with 27 touchdowns to only 5 interceptions and is nearing the top of the league in most quarterback stats. The Viking’s defense has been another story. They are allowing the 4th most yards per game and the 8th most points per game. The Vikings defense falling through in big moments is a large part of the reason that they lose so many of these one score games. When the game is on the line and the Vikings absolutely need a stop, they really struggle to get one. Even with their leaky defense, they have a shot at the playoffs, as they are just one game back of the third wildcard spot.
Unfortunately for the Vikings, their schedule is not doing them any favors to help them sneak into the playoffs in the final four weeks. They have to play the Rams, the Packers and the Bears twice. They were able to beat the Packers by a field goal the last time they met, but the Packers are not the kind of team that gets swept by a divisional opponent. I have the Vikings falling to the Packers and Rams and splitting with the Bears to end the season 7-10. It is going to take a major defensive turnaround for the Vikings to beat both the Rams and the Packers. They easily could sweep the Bears, but they also just lost to the Lions so there is no reason to feel comfortable with the Vikings beating a lesser opponent. I think this offseason will be really important for the Vikings and that they will fire Mike Zimmer. I like Mike Zimmer as a coach, but I think it’s time for a fresh start for both him and Minnesota. Zimmer has had some playoff success with the Vikings but two playoff wins since Zimmer took over in 2014 is not enough to ensure that he sticks around for another season if the Vikings miss the playoffs for the second season in a row. If they do go the route of hiring a new head coach, they have young stars and enough talent to find themselves right back in the playoff hunt next year
The Vikings would need a lot to go right for them in order to prove me wrong and make the playoffs this year. Even if they win all four of their remaining games, they would still need the Washington Football Team to lose a game to make it in. That said, if they do win out, it is pretty likely that Washington loses at least one out of their final four games. The defense needs to step up at crunch time moments and make some big plays to match the Vikings offense and if that happens, they may find themselves in the playoffs. If they make the playoffs, I think they’d be a first round exit but they have pulled off miracles before so the Vikings sneaking into the playoffs and stealing a game from the 2-seed would not surprise me much, even though I’m expecting them to miss the playoffs this year.
Chicago Bears
The Bears have been somewhat of a disappointment this season, but honestly I don’t think there were any real expectations of them performing any better than they are. Matt Nagy is a coach that I always feel like is much worse than his record reflects. This is Nagy’s fourth season as the Bears head coach and it will be the first time that he has a losing record. With quarterbacks like Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles, having a winning record once and going 8-8 two times is actually sort of impressive. But there is nothing impressive about where the Bears currently sit. Their offense is bottom five in both yards per game and points scored per game and their defense is not much better and is currently the 28th ranked defense in the NFL according to PFF. Allen Robinson has been a great receiver for the past few years, but really hasn’t been able to get anything going this year between his injury and poor quarterback play. Andy Dalton and Justin Fields have both started a few games this year and I actually really like Justin Fields. He was my favorite quarterback in last year’s draft class (yes, I actually liked him more than Trevor Lawrence) and I think he has such an insanely high ceiling. Fields has struggled this season, but I think he’ll end up having a good career and figure it out, but this is obviously a lost season for everyone involved with the Bears. Their offense has looked better the past couple of weeks as they put up 22 points against the Cardinals and 30 against the Packers, although they lost both games. The Bears are out of the playoff race and should spend the rest of their season developing Justin Fields. The Bears season is over in terms of playoff contention so there isn’t really much for them to look forward to for the remainder of the season. I believe that Matt Nagy is probably going to be fired so the Bears can start fresh with a new coach to develop Justin Fields and help him progress. Overall, I don’t think Nagy is that big of a problem for the Bears and that they could probably still be successful if he stayed, but I just think they need a fresh start at head coach and at general manager. A good quarterback is the hardest thing to find in football and the Bears have one that is at least young, talented and full of potential. Their main focus going forward needs to be on surrounding Fields with talent to see if he has what it takes to be a franchise quarterback.
Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions are the worst team in the NFL and at this point, they just need to hope they lose out and secure the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. They have a defense and offense that are both ranked in the bottom 5 in most statistics and they don’t really have too many players to be excited about. D’Andre Swift, Penei Sewell and TJ Hockenson are probably their best three players in terms of building around, but other than them there isn’t much to be excited about on the Lion’s roster. Dan Campbell promised the Lions would be a scrappy team that fights hard and “bites off people’s kneecaps” but they have just looked weak and under prepared week in and week out. This was a lost season for them and trading Matt Stafford for Jared Goff has at least given them some ammunition during the draft to make more picks and hopefully hit on some players with talent that they can build around. The future is looking pretty bleak for the Lions right now. Even with some extra picks from the Rams they have a tall task in front of them in trying to rebuild this roster and it’s a process that will take them at least a couple more years. The one silver lining that they have going for them is that they have a really good shot at losing their final four games and securing the first pick in the draft. In one of the oddest games of the season, they beat the Cardinals. However, they still have the Packers left on their schedule and a Seahawks team that now has Russell Wilson back. They also have the Falcons left to play this year and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the Lions beat the Falcons, but the odds are in Lions favor for securing the first overall pick in the draft. If they can hit their draft picks in the next couple years and get a head coach who is not Dan Campbell, then I’ll have some faith in the future of the Detroit Lions. But for now, the future of football is not bright in Detroit.
NFC West - Maxwell Egbujor
Los Angeles Rams
It took some time for Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay to build a strong chemistry, however they're emerging as one of the hottest teams in the NFL at the right time. They win on both sides of the trenches, with the highest rated pass-blocking O-Line in football, per PFF. Since beating the Seahawks 20-10 in an odd Tuesday night game impacted by COVID, the Rams now sit in 1st place in the NFC West, gaining full control at 10-4 of their destiny. Per PFF, they are the highest rated team in football at 93.1, featuring the highest rated defense overall, highest rated rushing defense, and the highest rated pass rushing unit. With their big win over the Cardinals, and a predictable win against the Seahawks this year, they will be marching into the playoffs hot looking for the 1-seed and first round bye. There's not a single team in the NFC that wants to deal with the Los Angeles Rams' offensive line unit, and front 7 on defense. If Odell Beckham Jr. comes into full form with Matt Stafford, this team will be playing in February.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals started this season hot, winning their first 7 games, 5 of them by 10 or more points. However, since their week 8 loss to the Green Bay Packers, Kyler Murray has been playing through injury, DeAndre Hopkins is out for the remainder of the regular season, and they've lost back to back recently to the Los Angeles Rams and the (Oh lord) Detroit Football Lions, who are sitting pretty at 2-10-1. They are 3-4 since starting 7-0, and now they're fight for first place is met by the Indianapolis Colts this week, who are one of the most dangerous teams in football after starting slow. The Cardinals have fallen to T-17th overall in PFF's overall grades, and the rushing defense is one of the worst in the NFL, ranked 25th in football. Kyler Murry is more often hurt than not in November/December, I don't trust Kliff Kingsbury yet at this point of his career, so I won't be shocked if and when this team burns out in the first round of the playoffs come January.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers this season have been one of the most polarizing teams in the National Football League. They picked up a head of steam after starting the season 2-4, however they haven't been able to maintain that juju. This team's signature win was a 31-10 shellacking they placed on the Los Angeles Rams in week 10, and the world thought the Niners were ready to make their 2019 run all over again. Their recent loss to the Tennessee Titans has put them in a deeper hole sitting at 8-7, however if they do get in, a team with a weaker run-defense will want no smoke from this franchise. The 49ers are ranked per PFF as the 4th best team overall in football, primarily due to their league best run-blocking offensive line, led by the likes of Trent Williams and Alex Mack. This team's playoff hopes lie upon their ability to sweep the Rams this season, and handle their business as expected VS the lowly Texans. A 10-7 record should be good enough to sneak into the NFC playoffs and make some noise on the road.
Seattle Seahawks
How tremendously sad has this season been? Just about everything that could've gone wrong for the Seahawks did go wrong. This team is centered entirely around Russell Wilson playing his finest football, or else the engine fails. In the previous decade, this franchise would be able to rely upon the likes of the Legion of Boom to hold opposing offenses to their worst showings of the season, and a run-game led by legendary football player and human being, Marshawn Lynch whenever games weren't going Seattle's way. Now, this franchise has been plagued by injury, COVID, and a lack of talent in imperative spots. Outside of Duane Brown at left tackle, the offensive line is down tremendous, ranked 29th per PFF. On the defensive side, the Seahawks are ranked 30th in coverage, only better than the Detroit Football Lions and the Houston Texans. This franchise's season ended against the Washington Football Team, and was cemented in the grave after a saddening 10-20 performance against the Rams this past week. The Seattle Seahawks forfeited their next two first round picks to the New York Jets in a trade package for Jamal Adams, so there is no benefit from being towards the bottom of the league and the top of the draft. Shane Waldron was a bust of a hire, Ken Norton Jr's defensive scheme is entirely outdated, and Russell Wilson seems to have grown tired of Pete Carroll's team mantra offensively. The best case scenario for this franchise is the current coordinators listed are relieved of their duties for their franchise (I'm really not a fan of people losing their jobs, this is still real life), and Pete Carroll finds a way next year to convince Russ that things will change in the forseeable future. Pete Carroll being head coach and executive vice president of the Seahawks places him in a position of power, to the point that he shouldn't be expected to go anywhere. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson on the trade block would be one of the hottest commodities in NFL history. A Hall of Fame, Super-bowl winning QB in his prime should never be in this situation, but here we are. We'll see where this franchise stands come this offseason.
NFC East - Jorell Toney
Dallas Cowboys
How ‘bout them cowboys!? The Dallas Cowboys sit atop of the NFC east division this year at a solid 9-4. undefeated in the division, the Cowboys are in the driver's seat of their own destiny and will look to make something of this momentum in the form of postseason glory. We've seen The Cowboys roster this season prove that they can rise to the occasion and get the job done. With a good mix of familiarity as well as some new and exciting playmakers this team is both healthy and deep enough to make a serious playoff push. Thanks to quality offensive line play led by Zack Martin (ranks 1st among guards in the nfl per ppr) and tyron smith (the second highest rated tackle per pff) dak Prescott typically gets to have his way with opposing defenses. his ability to link up with one of the most talented receiver rooms in the NFL has been fun to watch but would not be possible if not for the strength of the run game with another familiar face in Tony pollard (Pffs #2 rated running back in the league) having an explosive season. Among that new talent Trevon diggs and Micah parsons have quickly become more than just good defensive rookies and are turning into all star playmakers on the defensive side of the ball, something that has been lacking in Dallas for a long time. Travon has an impressive league leading 9 ints this season and Micah is the number one rated linebacker by pff as well as a defensive player of the year candidate already. Now the question remains what will Mike McCarthy kellen Moore damn Quinn and the rest of the coaching staff do with all of this talent? The way I see it, the Cowboys will secure a playoff berth and make a run to the NFC championship game where they inevitably run into the goat; Tom Brady, who will respectfully end Dallas' season.
New York Football Giants
New York, a city where there’s nothing you can’t do! Unless what you’re trying to do is play winning football that is. Sitting at just 4-9 big blue have struggled to find any footing this season and have been unable to keep their talent on the field to even give them a chance week to week. Take saquan Barkley for example missing 5 games this season with an ankle injury he suffered by stepping on a teammate, forcing his early exit vs a division rival. Not to mention the absences of other key players in the offense like Kadarius Toney, Darius Slayton, and Sterling Shepard all who have missed multiple games. Keeping the players healthy and ready to play is a responsibility that falls on the coaching staff and training department. However, between Joe Judge and Dave Gettleman, they don’t quite seem to be able to figure out who’s responsible for what. Pile that on top of the fact that they face their toughest divisional matchup against the Cowboys this Sunday and things could get ugly. They will look to finish the season as healthy as possible as they are practically out of any contention.
Washington Football Team
The Washington football team has had to fight its way through a tough schedule, and they’ve made it to 6-7 on the back of a four-game win streak, until eventually falling to the Cowboys 20-27 in their most recent game. Unfortunately, we’ve seen this team battle injuries to key players all season. We’ve seen top draft picks go down as well as starting QBs and still they were able to beat Tom Brady and the Bucs. That’s in large part due to Ron Riviera and the culture he’s created there. The locker room wants to compete regardless of the situation and that’s a reflection of good coaching. Unfortunately, there’s a few too many dominoes that would need to fall for them to make anything out of an injury riddled season like this one. They should finish off the year strong and may cause an upset or two before they’re finished but there’s only so much Taylor Heinicke and Scary Terry can do, and they can’t play the Seahawks every week.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia eagles season started with a big time win vs what we thought was at least an average Atlanta falcons team. Unfortunately what follows is a true display of inconsistency. Only ever being able to string together a win streak of two games this season The Eagles won a huge divisional matchup slated for Tuesday vs the Washington football team who they are tied with at 6-7. Now, If they can start their final stretch of games with a win at home in theory they could finish 3-1 of their last four and sneak into the last playoff spot at 9-8. But that would be the best case scenario and we’ve seen this season be many things but that for Philly. Between inconsistent QB play as well as the inability to capitalize on what has Been surprisingly good offensive line play, fans of the Eagles are left frustrated and wanting more from this team. If they are going to have the success they’re after they will need Nick Srianni to find a way to get more out of players like Miles Sanders who although he’s been decent on the ground, averaging over 5 yards a carry, hasn’t scored a single touchdown all season. Not to mention Jalen Hurts who has shown flashes of brilliance but has been unable to find a way to extend his good form for multiple games at a time let alone a full NFL season. And without much time left to make many meaningful adjustments I think eagles fans will stay disappointed as they will probably miss out on the playoffs.
NFC South - Steven Houston
Atlanta Falcons
In a division that I once praised as the “most talented” in the NFL, top-to-bottom, I am completely enthralled with how disappointing the Atlanta Falcons have been. Their deceiving 6-7 record would have you believe that they were a couple of heart breaks away from being in serious playoff contention amidst a Tom Brady led juggernaut in Tampa Bay. The reality is they are allowing over 27 points per game and are failing to score under Matt Ryan’s leadership ranking as the 26th best offense, according to PFF. Those numbers have trended upward in recency with a couple scrappy efforts including one against their division rivals, the Carolina Panthers, in Week 14. Where does this team go from here? Nowhere. They will sink into the abyss of NFL irrelevance, as they decided to forgo their future in not selecting a QB in the 2021 draft with their premier pick. Riddled with a haunting past, not built for the present, and surely doomed for the future, the Falcons will have to make several changes within the squad, staff, and management to compete again.
Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers have been in a state of peril for the last 3 years. The firing of offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, fills the headlines of the recent chaos that has taken place within the organization. Quite frankly, Brady was arguably one of the brighter pieces within the organization under Head Coach Matt Rhule’s staff. Similar to the Atlanta Falcons, their 5-8 record resembles one of illusion and false prophets. A blazing 3-0 start to this season gave the Panther Nation some reminiscent vibes from their 2014 season when Cam Newton and a stellar defense bulldozed their way to the Super Bowl. Fast forward and Cam Newton is back in a Panther uniform. The only problem is he is serving as the 3rd elected QB on the season after multiple miserable showings from draft bust, Sam Darnold and former XFL superstar, P.J. Walker. Newton has also contributed to the downfall, requiring to be benched twice in Week 13 and Week 14. Not to mention, the inevitable devastating loss of RB Christian McCaffrey to IR. The unbalanced performance of the Panthers has led to them being the 8th ranked defense, but the 24th ranked offense, according to PFF, has held down the young, promising group on the opposite side of the field. The Panthers will not make the playoffs and must find their franchise QB soon if they want to maximize the talent they have rostered.
New Orleans Saints
Where do we begin with the New Orleans Saints? Is this a spell of unfortunate circumstances or poor decisions? Missing the likes of top tier WR, Michael Thomas, and picking up injuries to QB and RB, Jameis Winston and Alvin Kamara, I would like to say unfortunate circumstances. The truth of the matter is, as talented and strong of an organization that the Saints may be, they have always failed to get the job done. According to PFF, entering the last 4 postseasons as a top 5 team in statistical performance, the Saints find a way to drop the ball or miss the tackle, quite literally. The story this year started from the moment their former QB and Hall of Famer, Drew Brees, retired from the NFL. This deprived the team of any true option at the QB position and with little to no salary cap space, the Saints did what they must: sign Jameis Winston. I would love to be able to exclaim that even with Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian having to take control under center, the Saints are still promising and will make the playoffs. Unfortunately, I cannot. The team has a complex backend schedule. They beat a Tampa Bay team dealing with injuries and COVID, keeping their playoffs hopes slim but alive. With a couple contract restructures and either a new QB brought in to serve the brilliant Head Coach, Sean Payton, or a revamped Winston with a year under his belt, the Saints should look to somewhat come back to their dominant selves.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Reigning Super Bowl champions, projected Super Bowl contenders, and G.O.A.T. led Tampa Bay Buccaneers are buckling up for the postseason. The Bucs are seen as the 4th best ranked team, boasting the highest scoring offense (410), averaging further than the 31 point mark a game, according to PFF. Their defense has struggled to find their groove like last year’s team under returning defensive coordinator, Todd Bowles. Ranked 19th, the defense has suffered tremendously throughout the season to some of the more strange opponents on the Bucs schedule. The good news for all Bucs fans is that the defense has shored up in the last 5 games, only allowing 21 points per game and doing so in blitzing fashion. The question is, do they have enough to repeat and go back-to-back as Super Bowl champions? My emphatic answer is yes! This team is hitting their stride right when they want and need to. Any Tom Brady led team will always have the best chance at post-season success as long as he is healthy and given an opportunity. To ensure my confidence in their ability to steal another one this year, they must close out the regular season with home field advantage. The rest will be history.
