Maxwell’s Hammer Em’ Home 5: Week 11 - NFL 2021 Season FT. Kevin Coffee
All odds presented by The Action Network as of 11/20/2021 1:00PM PST
My ‘Hammer Em’ Home 5’ are the 5 bets across the NFL betting stratosphere that I favor the strongest for the week. In week 10, we went 2-3 versus Vegas (again), as the Ravens enjoyed their trip to Miami, had a wonderful night out, and proceeded to not wake up for the Thursday Night Football game they were scheduled for. Meanwhile, the Patriots beat the brakes off the Browns, much more than I expected, as I bet the under. This week, it’s my pleasure to have good man and great friend, Kevin Coffee join me for this week’s edition of my HEH5. Kevin and I both give our favorite bets for the week, provide counterarguments towards each other’s picks, and even came together on a pick that was too good to argue against. I’ve been hot this week in the NBA, seeing a 83.01% return of investment. Let’s keep that same energy coming into this NFL weekend.
Maxwell Egbujor = ME
Kevin Coffee = KC
Maxwell and Kevin’s “Honey, I bet the House” Pick:
Dolphins -3.5 @ NYJ | 68% of the Bets | 75% of the $$
ME - Like the Dolphins? I love the Dolphins this week! Tua Tagovailoa ribs feel "good, not great" however Miami has been competitive in their last 5 weeks of play. Featuring a defense ranked 9th in the red-zone, 8th in sacks and 8th in turnovers, you can examine that there is life sprouting in this group. The numbers for this defensive unit have been worsened by their counterparts inability to stay on the field for more than 7 plays. This defense should handle their business against a Jets offensive unit that is dead last in turnovers surrendered, 28th in points per game and 2nd to last in rushing yards per game. With Joe Flacco commanding the New York Jets offense in his first start of the season, you should not be expecting much poise or stability within that unit. I take the Dolphins winning big on the road, 24-10, I surrender the 3.5 points and the Dolphins win outright.
KC - The Dolphins just embarrassed the Ravens on Thursday night a week ago and find themselves on a nice little two game win streak. The Jets on the other hand, looked like a lifeless corpse against the Bills and have resorted to a quarterback change to try and spark the team, but it isn’t going to work. The Jets defense ranks dead last in the NFL and that should help Tua Tagovailoa keep the Dolphin’s offense rolling. Luckily for the Dolphins, the Jets offense isn’t much better, coming in as a bottom 5 unit, right as the Dolphin’s defense is picking it back up and starting to make some big plays. To top it all off, the Dolphins have beaten the Jets in 6 of their previous 7 meetings and will look to add another win against a Jets team that is devoid of talent. The Phin’s defense harassed Greg Roman and Lamar Jackson so they should have little to no issue doing the same to Joe Flacco and the Jets en route to a 21-6 victory.
Maxwell’s Hammer Em’ Home 5: (+1 Honey, I Bet the House)
Bills -7.5 VS Colts | 48% of the Bets | 69% of the $$ |
ME - The Buffalo Bills currently host the best defense in the National Football League. 1st in points, 1st in turnovers, 1st in yards per play allowed, 1st in first downs allowed, 1st in third down conversion percentage. The Colts come into Buffalo on a two game winning streak against the New York Jets and the Jacksonville Jaguars, allowing 30 points to the Jets, and failing to cover against Jacksonville, albeit still winning. The Colts defense as of late is not delivering to its full potential, ranking 24th in yards per play, and 26th against the pass. Josh Allen in a down year still has the Bills marching to the tune of 31 points per game, so the Colts are relying on turnovers and perfect offense to keep this game close. I'll surrender the points, Bills defense holds strong, holding the Colts to their lowest scoring total in the last five weeks. Bills win 28-20 at home in solid fashion.
KC - The Bills defense has been playing out of their mind, but if there is one chink in their defensive armor, it’s their run defense. Their run defense has been solid, allowing just 83.9 rushing yards a game, but the stats have been a little deceiving as they mostly faced weak rushing teams, such as the Texans, the Dolphins twice and the James Robinson-less Jags. When they faced Derrick Henry and the Titans, they allowed nearly 150 rushing yards and lost the game. Jonathan Taylor is currently the best running back in the league, having already racked up over 1200 yards from scrimmage and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. If Taylor gets going early, the Colts have a good chance to hang around and at the very least, keep this one close. I think the Bills have too much talent for the Colts to overcome but I think it all shakes out to a one score game, with the Colts falling 30-24.
Colts @ Bills Under 49.5 | 58% of the Bets | 91% of the $$
ME - A Bills victory to the tune of 28-20 manages to cover this under. This is a lot of points for a Buffalo Bills defense playing lights out, at home, against a team who's coming into town after beating down two porous teams. There will be an offensive regression from Indianapolis at some point, unless Jonathon Taylor wants to continue to emerge as the best running back in football (that is healthy, sorry Derrick).
KC - This had all the makings of a low scoring game, with two dominant defenses facing off against one another, but in the two games where the Bills defense has allowed over 100 rushing yards, the point totals were 58 and 65. I think Jonathan Taylor gets his 100 rushing yards this week and as such, I think it becomes a high scoring affair. As I mentioned above, I think it ends up a 30-24 game, which has the Colts and Bills hitting the over with a couple points to spare.
Bucs -10.5 VS Giants | 55% of the Bets | 89% of the $$
ME - The Giants have good reason to cover a 10.5 point spread, but let me tell you why they will fail to deliver in this endeavor to Tampa Bay. The Bucs have now lost two games in a row in embarrassing fashion, to the Saints and The Football Team failing to cover in both instances. The Bucs are 3-1 against the spread at home, and need a rebound game desperately, as their quest for home field advantage will rely heavily on the outcome of this game. The Cardinals, Packers and Rams aren't looking to slow down, albeit the NFC West teams mentioned both have lost their last games. The Bucs feature a top-flight passing attack, ranking 2nd in yards per play, 5th in points, 3rd in passing yards and 3rd in third down conversions. I like Joe Judge, and the Giants are often competitive in these spots, but I like the situation, eye-test and analytics surrounding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I'll surrender the points, taking the Bucs to win 34-23.
KC - Truthfully, I have no faith in the New York Giants. But just to play devil’s advocate on this one, the Giants do like to play competitive football in big games. Not winning football, but competitive football and 10.5 points is a healthy spread against a Buccaneers team that is coming off of back to back losses. The Giants might be getting Saquon Barkley back this week and although the Buccaneers have a solid run defense, Saquon would help the Giants immensely. Ultimately, I can see Tampa Bay manhandling the Giants for three quarters and the Giants stealing a cover away in garbage time to end it 30-21.
Cowboys +2.5 @ Chiefs | 53% of the Bets | 62% of the $$
ME - This Cowboys team is built to cover the spread against a team constructed like Kansas City. A high-powered offense, 3rd in points, 1st in yards per play, 3rd in first downs, 5th in third down conversions, with a top 5 passing attack and a top 8 rushing attack. This Cowboys football team holds on to the football, stays on the field and finishes drives with points. Meanwhile the Chiefs are dealing with one of their worst defenses in the Patrick Mahomes era. 26th in points allowed, 31st in yards per play allowed, 30th in passing yards allowed and 28th in first downs allowed. This defense is not built from the front seven to get good offenses off the field. The Dallas Cowboys' opportunistic defense, ranking 5th in turnovers, 5th in first down defense, and 3rd in third down defense. Even against Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Andy Reid, the Cowboys will not only find a way to cover, they will win this football game on the road. I'm taking the points, hopefully not needing them in a 28-24.
KC - The Dallas Cowboys have put together a great season and even though they’re 8-1 against the spread this season, this spread is just a little too small for me to feel comfortable with the Cowboys extending that record to 9-1 this week. The Chiefs have been pretty up and down this season, but they’ve strung together a nice little three game win streak and Pat Mahomes looked like himself again last week with 5 touchdowns and 400 passing yards against an underrated Raiders defense. This game will almost certainly be a shootout, with the Cowboys defense being boom or bust from drive to drive. The Cowboys passing defense has allowed over 300 yards 5 times already this season and I don’t see a way that they could sustainably find a way to deal with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and company. This is a game that could go a lot of different ways, but the Chiefs are used to winning big games and if I had to guess, I see the Chiefs winning this one with a late field goal 30-27.
Kevin’s Hammer Em’ Home 5: (+1 Honey, I Bet the House)
Vikings +2.5 VS Packers | 29% of the Bets | 45% of the $$
KC - The Vikings are coming off a big win against the LA Chargers and have been really solid this season, they’re sitting at 4-5 but every loss has been a one score game where they’ve had a shot to win it. Kirk Cousins has sneakily graded out as the number one passing QB so far this season, according to PFF, and although the Packers have a top five defensive unit statistically, there are weaknesses for Kirk and the Vikings to attack. The Packers defense has been average against the run and cornerback Eric Stokes is likely to get picked on trying to cover Adam Thielen and/or Justin Jefferson. The Packers are coming off a win against the Seahawks, but that felt more like a case of the Seahawks losing the game more than the Packers winning the game. Kirk’s hot streak, the Vikings killer wide receiver duo and the home field advantage against a divisional opponent should be enough for the Vikings to take this one at home, 28-24.
ME - This is a sharp play, and the standings are deceptive for the Vikings, as they’ve lost a ton of close games this season. However, I’m not a fan of betting against Aaron Rodgers in a divisional game where Vegas thinks it’s close in spread. Aaron Rodgers as a one-score (Within 7) division favorite has a 72% cover rate, he’s built for these situations. I agree with the mindset that the Packers cant continue to cover at the incredible rate they have, as they’re 9-1 against the spread this season, but Aaron’s reliability ON the field plus Minnesota’s 27th ranked rushing attack give me worry.
Panthers -3.5 VS Washington Football Team | 54% of the Bets | 43% of the $$
KC - Cam Newton is back, baby. The entire Panthers roster played with a lot more energy than when Sam Darnold was starting at quarterback. Cam isn’t the MVP that he used to be, but he brings an energy with him that teammates respond to and he can make enough plays to keep them a competitive team. The Panthers defense has been a top 10 unit this season and I truly believe they could be ranked higher if they had stronger quarterback play throughout the season. It’s hard for a defense to shut down an opponent just to watch their offense go three and out or turn the ball over and all of a sudden they’re back on the field with little rest and no points on the board. Even still, the Panthers are allowing the fewest pass yards per game this season and should have no trouble keeping Taylor Heinicke in check. The Washington Football Team is sitting at the bottom half of the league in both offense and defense and even though they upset the Buccaneers last week, it looked like a fluke to me and I just don’t see Washington upsetting the Panthers at home. Without Sam Darnold to hold them back anymore, the Panthers have a reason to fight and will have a pretty easy win over the Washington Football Team 28-14.
ME - Be careful placing too much stock in Cam Newton’s first start of the NFL season. Both teams are coming off big, emotional wins against the NFC’s top teams, and Taylor himself may have ignited a fire within Washington’s locker room as Cam did. Also, be weary of the Head Coach mismatch in place. Ron Rivera knows Cam’s tendencies to a T, and Matt Rhule is just getting to know Cam. Analytically, the Panthers have every right to not only win, but cover at home. However, this game will be eccentric.
Saints @ Eagles Over 43 | 60% of the Bets | 72% of the $$
KC - The Eagles have averaged 32.7 points per game since week 8 and their offense is really finding a rhythm with Jalen Hurts. Hurts is a top 3 rushing quarterback in the league and is a slightly above average passer, which is more than enough to push them down the field and keep defenses on their toes. The Eagles have a high scoring offense and a leaky defense that should allow the Saints to move the ball and put up their fair share of points. The Saints have shown an ability to put up points, even with Trevor Siemian starting at quarterback. The Saints defense is an elite unit, but they have some depth issues at corner and if Jalen Hurts is able to push the ball downfield and attack guys like Paulson Adebo, this game can get really high scoring, really quickly. I think this game will turn into a little shootout that will have the Eagles barely sneaking away with the 30-28 victory.
ME - The Eagles have evolved into a high-powered offense with no media attention, however there’s danger here that the potent Saints defense bricks the Eagles run game, leading to more opportunities for Jalen Hurts to make mistakes on 3rd downs. The Saints defense is 4th in turnovers and 5th in red-zone efficiency, screaming that every team has to earn it in the red-zone for 7 against Sean Payton’s defense. Pair that with the fact that Sean Payton won’t give Trevor Simeon an opportunity to throw the game away, literally; there’s a chance we see a really low scoring total in this game.
Jags +6.5 VS 49ers | 22% of the Bets | 20% of the $$
KC - The 49ers are riding high after steamrolling the Rams on Monday Night Football and might overlook their 2-7 opponent. Truthfully, this one is just a gut feeling. The 49ers have looked really good at times and Deebo Samuel has been putting up superhuman numbers, but they’ve been pretty inconsistent and I can see them getting a little cocky and letting the Jags hang around in this one. Trevor Lawrence has definitely played like a rookie this season, but with a fully healthy James Robinson back at his disposal, some of the pressure will be off and he should have no problem distributing the ball to his wide receivers against cornerbacks Josh Norman, who is currently the 117th ranked corner in the league (out of 119) according to PFF, and Emmanuel Mosely, who is allowing over 10 yards per reception to opposing receivers. The Jags have a little fight in them and have some pretty solid playmakers on offense that should help them keep this one close. Ultimately, I think the Jags will fight hard, but fall to the 49ers 20-17.
ME - The 49ers are finally seeing their top players return from injury and Kyle Shanahan is bringing the offense back to their roots. PFF has the 49ers ranked as a top-10 team in overall performance. They’ve won 2 of the last 3, scoring 30 points in two of those outings, and look to continue that offense pacing against a Jaguars team that features the 25th ranked defense per PFF, and the 21st ranked run defense. If the 49ers get going early in the first quarter, this game could get ugly, quickly.