Maxwell Egbujor’s Hammer Em’ Home 5: Week 10 - NFL 2021 Season
All odds presented by The Action Network as of 11/11/2021 4:00PM PST
My ‘Hammer Em’ Home 5’ are the 5 bets across the NFL betting stratosphere that I favor the strongest for the week. Last week, we went 2-3 versus Vegas, as the Raiders and the Bengals burned us against their underdog opponents in the Giants and Jets, respectively. 2-3 isn’t horrible in the betting world; however, I always strive to achieve my greatest in the areas that I’m passionate about, so we can do better. Here are my favorites for the week.
Patriots -1 (Monday) | 37% of the BETS | 53% of the $$
The Patriots are 1 point favorites at home against a Cleveland Browns team that is overinflated due to their massive 41-16 shellacking of the former #1 seed in the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals. The Patriots host a top-7 defense that is 4th in turnovers, 9th in yards allowed per play and 8th in red-zone defense. This defense rarely gives up the big play, make you earn every yard, and force field goals in the red-zone. Meanwhile, the Browns come into Foxborough without Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb, although D'Ernest Johnson has proved to be a capable replacement runner. I have the Patriots winning and covering a close, gritty, run-heavy football game 24-20. I'll swallow the point.
Ravens -7.5 (Monday) | 79% of the BETS | 93% of the $$
I understand that Miami is a home underdog and traditionally, anything over 7 points at home is too much to give up. However, we are in a new age and era of the NFL. The Miami Dolphins are dead last in yards per play offensively, 2nd to last in stopping 1st down conversions, third down conversions and 27th in points scored per game. They are an inept offense with Tua at quarterback, and Jacoby Brissett isn't any better. The Ravens offense is elite, 4th in redzone efficiency, 6th in 1st downs, 2nd in rushing yards per game and 5th in yards per play. One team stays on the field and moves the ball, the other suffers from a glaring lack of explosion. I'll swallow the -7.5 I got for the Ravens on Monday this week. Ravens win this game 28 - 17 in a blowout, and cover.
Raiders +2.5 (Tuesday) | 34% of the BETS | 32% of the $$
The Raiders burned me last week, but it's a perfect bounce back spot for this Las Vegas franchise. The Raiders host the 4th best passing attack I football, are 8th in yards per play, and are top-10 in least turnovers. This Raiders team knows how to score, has a dangerous offense, and is competing against a Kansas City defense that has been at its worst in the Patrick Mahomes era. Kansas City is dead last in yards per play allowed, 28th in passing and rushing yards allowed, 29th in 1st downs allowed, and 28th in redzone defense. Teams both elite and rebuilding have poured fire all over this defense, and the Raiders will be no different. I take the Raiders to bounce back and pull off the upset, not even requiring the points given. The home dog wins a shootout in Vegas, 34-31.
Eagles +2.5 (Monday) | 40% of the BETS | 21% of the $$
I have faith in a shaky Eagles team VS a Broncos team who played their best game of the season VS Dallas off the bye. The Broncos with good quarterback play are still a dangerous team with a sneaky good defense, coached by Vic Fangio. However, the Eagles, albeit not good in the passing game, have one of the best redzone offenses, featuring a top-5 rushing attack in football, 9th in 3rd down conversions, and 10th in points. My only scare here is that this Eagles team is a shell of themselves defensively, and a sports bettor has to understand that the Broncos could take advantage of that and make this game ugly early, like the Cowboys. However, I like offenses that can run the ball, stay on the field, and keep your Quarterback and offense, off it. I'll take the Eagles losing close on the road, 19-21 Broncos, Eagles cover.
Browns @ Patriots U45 (Tuesday) | 49% of the BETS | 96% of the $$
Again, I have the Patriots winning and covering a close, gritty, run-heavy football game 24-20, this covers the under total. Two run focused teams, both of them being the best rushing attacks in football. The clock will drain fast, and this game will be over before you know it. Both quarterbacks are more game-manager than gunslinger, we won't see many insane X-plays in this Sunday morning game.