Maxwell’s Hammer Em’ Home 5: Week 14 - NFL 2021 Season FT. Kevin Coffee
All odds sourced by The Action Network as of 12/9/2021 5:00PM PST
My ‘Hammer Em’ Home 5’ are the 5 bets across the NFL betting stratosphere that I favor the strongest for the week. Overall, I’m 14-18 in the past month in my NFL bets, parlays included. I’m always looking for improvement across my life, and sports betting is no different. I’ve been staying hot in the NBA, but that is not what we are here for. We’re here to conquer Vegas and take as much money as we can back home with us for Christmas and the New Year. This week, it’s my pleasure to have good man and great friend, Kevin Coffee join me once again for this week’s edition of my HEH5, maybe it’ll become a regular event, who knows. Kevin and I both give our favorite bets for the week, provide counterarguments towards each other’s picks, and even came together on a pick that was too good to argue against.
Maxwell Egbujor = ME
Kevin Coffee = KC
“Hi, this is Tyreek”
Maxwell and Kevin’s “Honey, I bet the House” Pick:
Chiefs -9.5 VS Raiders| 39% of the Bets | 70% of the $$
ME - Honey, I Bet the House! Not often that I would ever trust the Chiefs as big favorites, as they rarely ever cover spreads where they are favored by more than four points. However, this Chiefs team has prided themselves on their revamped defense, and the offense is slowly but surely beginning to reglue their explosiveness together. They poured a simple 42 points on the Raiders in their last outing, in Vegas, covering at home will be a matter of Chiefs boasting one of the hottest defenses in football, and Patrick Mahomes reversing his narrative against the Raiders, and taking control of this rivalry. Chiefs cover in a blowout, 35-21.
KC - The Raiders have lost four of their last five games, with one of those losses being a beat down from the Chiefs in Week 10. Conversely, the Chiefs have won their last five games and more importantly have covered the spread in their past three games. The last time they played, the Raiders looked almost lifeless as they let Pat Mahomes throw five touchdowns and scored only two touchdowns themselves. The Raiders are coming off of a loss to the Washington Football Team and I don’t see them having an answer to Mahomes and the Chiefs this week. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is back for the Chiefs, just adding a little extra fuel to the fire that is the Chiefs offense. Last week, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce only posted a combined five catches for 49 yards and I expect the two of them to come out swinging to make up for their lack of production last week. I know 9.5 is a lot of points to cover, but with the Raiders on a downswing and the Chiefs on an upswing, I like the Chiefs to win this game 33-20 at home.
Maxwell’s Hammer Em’ Home 5: (+1 Honey, I Bet the House)
WFT +4 VS Cowboys | 45% of the Bets | 47% of the $$
ME - The Cowboys are one of the best offenses in football when the ground game is in full effect, however with Zeke hobbled, Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore have partially lost the identity of the Cowboys' offense. The Cowboys per PFF are rated as the 3rd best team in football, boasting the highest rated offense that features the best run-blocking offensive line in football. Zeke not being 100% but maintaining the stardom that comes with his name has made for an awkward situation in Dallas, not bad but awkward. Tony Pollard is the best back in Dallas at this current moment, due to Zeke's attrition. Zeke can get back to 90% of what his prime was within the near future, but as it currently stands, Kellen Moore isn't trusting the run game to Its entirety due to Zeke's health. Zeke and Tony combined for 19 rushes in their loss against the Raiders, and 16 in their loss against the Chiefs. The Washington Football Team is on my slip not because they're one of the hottest teams in football, but because Vegas refuses to catch up to them for deeper reasons. Vegas makes all of their money on the most popular teams per sport, one of those being the Cowboys. The Cowboys are coming in shaky after beating Taysom Hill with no throwing hand, and are favorited by 4 points on the road. The Cowboys are one of the most public teams of all time, and I'm already a huge fan of home dogs and underdogs in general. Montez Sweat will be returning to the lineup. Amari Cooper is still hobbled, Zeke is hobbled, and the Cowboys are overvalued by Vegas. I'll take the gift of +4 points at home for the hot underdog.
KC - Washington has been on a nice win streak the past four weeks, but I don’t see them being able to keep up with the Cowboys at all. The Cowboys are currently putting up the most yards per game in the league (416.3 y/g) and the second most points per game in the league (29.4 p/g), while Washington is coming off of two consecutive games that they won by scoring 17 in each game. 17 isn’t going to get it done against the Cowboys. Washington’s strength is their defense, but as good as their defense is, I don’t see how they’ll be able to stop the Cowboy’s offense. The talent is nearly limitless on the Cowboy’s offense. Amari Cooper, Ceedee Lamb, Zeke, Tony Pollard, Dalton Schultz, Tyron Smith, Zach Martin, and Dak Prescott leading them are too much for Washington to stop them consistently and Taylor Heinicke isn’t consistent enough to match the Cowboys in scoring. The only thing that would give me pause about betting on Dallas is Mike McCarthy guaranteeing a victory. That could give Washington a lot of motivation to win this divisional game at home, but I don’t think it will be enough. I think the Cowboys win 27-17 in Washington.
Lions +10 @ Broncos | 43% of the Bets | 23% of the $$
ME - The Lions are a bettor’s best friend this season, if you've done your homework. I understand that after a dream weekend for anyone who bet the Detroit spread or ML that it's the perfect time to fade the Detroit Lions. However, I would argue that Denver Broncos' offense has no right to be favorited by this many points. Vic Vangio's defense, especially at home as smothered bad offenses, a title that the Detroit football team must claim. However, this Detroit team has tied the Steelers, lost close against a hobbled Browns roster, lost on the final play against Chicago, and stunned the Vikings at home. Dan Campbell to his credit, has his team fighting every time they touch the football field, albeit they're athletically outmatched in every contest. They are a team that I refuse to back statistically, but that is the magic of the NFL this year, and the magic of sports betting. The Detroit Football Lions are 8-4 against the spread this season as a 1-10-1 team. Just take the gift of +10 from Vegas, which grew from +7.5. The public continues to fade this team, and professionals bounce back and forth, and I understand why. It's painful to drop your hard earned money on such a stinker of a franchise, but welcome to Vegas. I'll take Detroit losing on the road to a above average Denver Broncos team, 21-13, Detroit covers.
KC - The Detroit Lions finally pulled out their first victory of the season. The Lions have had 6 games this season decided by three points or less so I definitely understand the logic behind this pick. Personally, I wouldn’t touch this game because I have no faith in either team. This feels like the kind of game where anything can happen and I wouldn’t be shocked at the result. The Broncos defense is allowing the 3rd least points per game in the league and the Lions are scoring the 4th least. They both have bad offenses, so I would have to take the team that at least has a good defense. 8.5 is a very large spread, but the Lions are lacking talent and are not consistent enough for me to trust them to cover it. As I said before, I wouldn’t be shocked by any outcome in this game, but I think it ends up as a 20-10 Broncos victory, leaving the Lions a couple points short of covering.
Bengals +1.5 VS Niners | 52% of the Bets | 38% of the $$
ME - Professional bettors have been playing with this line for the entire week. We’ve seen the line open at Cincy +3.5, sink all the way to -2, and come back to +1.5. It hasn't broken national news, but sources within NFL circles believe that Joe Burrow suffered a throwing hand injury that may derail the Bengals. However, until we see that Joe Burrow is in danger health-wise, I'll be taking the Bengals as home dogs all day. Homefield advantage is slowly deteriorating in the NFL due to a multitude of reasons, from the pandemic to culture, however it's still worth about 1.3 points per PFF. At this line, that would rate the Bengals as a pick em' VS the 49ers at home. I'll take the extra points I'm being given. The late money being placed on the Niners does worry me a bit, but it doesn’t scare me off this bet. I've put my money towards smellier franchises. Bengals are one of the biggest Jekyll and Hyde acts in football, and I think we get the brilliant version of this team if Joe Burrow is healthy and willing. Bengals win a close game against a potent 49ers team, 28-26, I'll take the points.
KC - This game is a really interesting one. The Bengals are coming off a bad loss to the Chargers where Joe Burrow got banged up and the 49ers are coming off of a bad loss where they let their 10 point lead slip away and fell to the Seahawks. The 49ers strength on offense matches the Bengals strength on defense. The 49ers lean on their run game and the Bengals defense is allowing the 4th least rushing yards per game so we should have a fun game of strength matching strength. In a game like this that feels so evenly matched on the field, I look towards the coaching and to me, Kyle Shanahan is in a different world compared to Zac Taylor as a coach. I expect Shanahan to come up with some wrinkles to the offense to find a way around the Bengals great run defense. Their solid ground game and some big plays from George Kittle should help the 49ers win this game 23-20.
Rams +2.5 @ Cardinals | 35% of the Bets | 57% of the $$
ME - The Rams have been awful ATS this season for a team with such talent, and have been one of the worse spread bets this past month and on, only covering against the Jacksonville Jaguars this past weekend. That is exactly why we bet this football team at this stage of the season in a divisional matchup. The Cardinals are not only one of the best, but one of the hottest teams in football, and if it wasn't for a miscommunication between Kyler Murray and A.J Green, they may be walking into this contest at 11-1. The Rams still host one of the most explosive offenses in football through turmoil, ranking 1st in yards per play, 3rd in passing yards and 2nd in sacks allowed. This game will be one of the shockers of the week. The Rams are in a position to get right for the race for the 1st seed in the NFC, imperative if you want to guarantee the easiest path to the Super Bowl, which will be hosted at SoFi Stadium. Not only do I take the Rams in this contest, I'm calling for the upset. Rams used the Jaguars to get loose, now they will get right against the Cardinals, winning 27-24, not needing the points.
KC - The Cardinals are getting healthier and that is really bad news for the Rams. The Cardinals offense is a juggernaut and their defense has been having an under the radar good year as well. It shows a lot to me that this team was able to win 2 out of 3 games with Colt McCoy starting at quarterback. They are a complete team without Kyler Murray and dominant with him. And that is no disrespect to the Rams who are a great team in their own right. The Rams have maybe the best player in football in Aaron Donald and an abundance of talent on both sides of the ball. But none of that helped them much when the Cardinals and Rams met earlier this season. The Rams are coming off of a dominant win against Jacksonville, but before that they were on a three game losing streak so we will see if they’re back on track now that they are playing a real opponent. The Cardinals are top five in the league in both points scored per game and points allowed per game and I expect them to make enough plays on offense and defense to beat the Rams 33-27.
Steelers +3 @ Vikings | 49% of the Bets | 64% of the $$
ME - Minnesota has found themselves within a one score contest in every game this season. Not only that, they've managed to lose within the last possession in almost every single loss this season. Mike Zimmer is on the hot seat this season due to being a defensive-minded coach that has allowed 6 losses to end in either Go-ahead FG or Touchdowns. With a hobbled Dalvin Cook and an absent Adam Thielen, the defense will have free range to provide extra help, if not bracket Justin Jefferson. The Vikings season practically ended with Jared Goff completing a curl route to St. Brown for game, I'll be fading the Vikings if the Steelers, a team who scratches and claws with short passing and the run game, are getting three points. Win or lose, Vikings will keep it close. I'll take the Vikings winning this game 24-22, Steelers cover with the points.
KC - I have absolutely no faith in the Pittsburgh Steelers. More specifically, I have no faith in Ben Roethlisberger. Statistically he isn’t having the worst season ever, although he is grading out as a bottom three quarterback according to PFF, but he is holding this team back. Dionte Johnson and Chase Claypool are solid wide receivers, but the Steelers are middle of the pack in passing offense. Ben just isn’t the quarterback he used to be, and he isn’t the Steelers only problem. They have a talented running back in Najee Harris, but they are a bottom five rushing offense, mostly due to their offensive line. They have a couple of studs on defense in TJ Watt and Cameron Heyward, but other than them, their defense isn’t very good either. They tied with the Lions, lost their next two games, and only won this past Sunday because the Ravens got aggressive and didn’t want to play for overtime. Now I know the Vikings are far from perfect and play in a lot of close games, but I don’t think the Steelers will be able to keep up with them. Justin Jefferson is debatably the best wide receiver in football, Dalvin Cook is coming back for the Vikings and while Kirk Cousins might throw a pick or two, I think the Vikings offense will carry them to an easy 30-20 victory.
Kevin’s Hammer Em’ Home 5: (+1 Honey, I Bet the House)
Bucs -3.5 VS Bills | 63% of the Bets | 63% of the $$
KC - The Buffalo Bills just showed me that they have no spine. The Patriots threw the ball three times and were able to beat the Bills in Buffalo. THREE. The Bills have lost to every good team they’ve played and I expect that to continue against Tampa Bay. Gronk has been a touchdown machine for Tampa, tied for third in the league for tight end touchdown receptions despite missing 6 games this year. Brady is currently PFF’s number one ranked QB in the league and the Bucc’s defense has looked as good as one could expect with all the injuries they’re dealing with. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are great, but this pick is more about my lack of belief in the Bills. The way Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde handled their post game press conference after losing to the Patriots on Monday night told me all I need to know about the Bills. When asked if they were embarrassed by their run defense, they got agitated and told the reporter he was disrespectful. They should be embarrassed, their opponent threw the ball three times and they still lost. The reporter asked a tough question and they essentially threw a fit about it. These are leaders of this team and they shy away from the hard questions. Just like their team shies away in big games. The Buccaneers win this one 30-14.
ME - I love the Bills in this spot. After an ugly loss in terrible weather, the Bills get to march down to warm weather Tampa Bay as underdogs against a pass defense that can't keep up with above average passing attacks. The Bills are 8th in passing yards, 4th in sacks allowed, 8th in first downs, 2nd in third-down conversions and 8th in points. This Bills team will march against Tampa Bay's 19th ranked passing defense, and average pass rush. Tampa Bay has dealt with a multitude of injuries to their secondary, and it reflect in their average defensive numbers. Bills will keep up with Tom and Byron Leftwich's pass happy offense, and cover the spread losing 30-28.
Cardinals -2.5 VS Rams | 65% of the Bets | 43% of the $$
KC - Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are both finally healthy and they picked up right where they left off. Kyler only threw 15 passes Sunday against the Bears, but managed to throw 2 touchdowns and rush for another 2. When Kyler is on, this offense is nearly impossible to stop. And the Cardinals whole team is just built to play winning football. They play solid defense and are averaging the third most points per game on offense, and that’s including a three game stint without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. The Rams are a great team, but the last time they played, the Cardinals won by three scores in LA and I expect them to perform just as well as the home team. I think the Rams fight harder, looking for revenge, but the Cardinals ultimately complete the sweep and win 33-27.
ME - As stated in my breakdown, the Rams still host one of the most explosive offenses in football through turmoil, ranking 1st in yards per play, 3rd in passing yards and 2nd in sacks allowed. This game will be one of the shockers of the week. The Rams are in a position to get right for the race for the 1st seed in the NFC, imperative if you want to guarantee the easiest path to the Super Bowl, which will be hosted at SoFi Stadium. Not only do I take the Rams in this contest, I'm calling for the upset. Rams used the Jaguars to get loose, now they will get right against the Cardinals, winning 27-24, not needing the points.
Ravens +2.5 @ Browns | 50% of the Bets | 23% of the $$
KC - The Ravens have been a weird team this year. Sometimes they dominate and sometimes they get beat down by lesser opponents. However, I can’t pass up an 8-4 team as an underdog in a divisional game. The Ravens just lost to the Steelers by one point, but it’s actually a loss that I like. I like that they went for the win in regulation by going for a two point conversion instead of kicking the extra point and going to overtime. It’s an aggressive decision that didn’t work out for them, but it’s an aggressive decision that shows they want to win football games. The Browns have won just one of their last three games and that win was a three point victory against the worst team in football, the Detroit Lions. They’ve looked rough with Baker Mayfield playing through injury which has caused the whole offense to struggle. Their defense has been great, they’re currently ranked 5th overall on defense according to PFF, but I just don’t see that being enough for them to win this game unless Baker is miraculously back to full health. The last time these teams met was just two weeks ago and the Ravens won despite Lamar Jackson throwing four interceptions. I don’t expect Lamar to throw four interceptions again this time and I have the Ravens taking a 20-13 road win.
ME - This is a Pros VS Joes game according to The Action Network, as 50% of the bets are coming in on each side, but 77% of the money is going to the Browns. There's something broken with this Ravens' offense, and the injuries depleting the secondary of the franchise don't help the cause either. Lamar hasn't been right returning from injury and sickness this season, throwing 7 TDs and 8 INTS, albeit 4 of those INTs came in their previous contest against the browns. Browns are coming off of the bye week healthiest as they've been for most of the season, Baker and the defense included. I'm avoiding this close contest, but I'll especially fade the Ravens.
Falcons +2.5 @ Panthers | 60% of the Bets | 32% of the $$
KC - The Panthers have lost Christian McCaffrey again this year and this time it is for the rest of the season. They went 1-4 in the previous five games the McCaffrey missed, with that one win coming, ironically, against the Falcons. But this time there is more than just McCaffrey being out going in Atlanta’s favor. The Panthers made the decision last Sunday to fire offensive coordinator and play-caller Joe Brady in the middle of the season. Running backs coach Jeff Nixon will take over play-calling duties and there may be some bumps as he gets a feel for calling the offense. The Falcons are obviously not a very good football team, but they have some talented players on the offensive side of the ball with Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts. Their defense is pretty bad outside of third ranked PFF corner, AJ Terrell and interior defensive lineman, Grady Jarrett, but they should be able to capitalize against an inexperienced play-caller. I still think the Falcons find a way to lose this game, but I think they play it close enough to cover the spread and lose 21-20.
ME - Falcons have every reason to cover this game, however Atlanta finds ways to replicate the magic of the city in horrible ways on the football field. The Falcons sit at 5-7, however they are statistically one of the worst teams in football. If Cordarrelle Patterson isn't on his A-game, this offense looks lifeless as Matt Ryan looks old and Kyle Pitts is the best weapon available without Calvin Ridley. 27th in points, 25th in yards per play and 28th in rushing yards, I can't trust the Falcons as far as I can throw them. They've been broken ever since their infamous Super Bowl sellout session.