Max and Kev’s Hammer Em’ Home 5: Week 14 Recap
Maxwell and Kevin are ACCOUNTABLE!
Maxwell and Kevin breakdown the results from an odd week of football in an increasingly odd season. A tale of two cities, one might say this week. Favorites covered at an insane rate, 10-2 ATS on the week, the best week the Public (not professional bettors) has had this season.
“Hi, this is Tyreek”
Maxwell and Kevin’s “Honey, I bet the House” Pick:
Chiefs -9.5 VS Raiders| 39% of the Bets | 70% of the $$ - Wunderbar!
KC - I knew the Chiefs were going to cover when they scored a defensive touchdown on the first play of the game. The Raiders never recovered and never stood a chance with the way the Chiefs were playing. What I cannot wrap my head around is what the hell the Raiders were thinking. They decide to have a pre-game huddle on the Chiefs logo at midfield and stomp all over it, but why? Do none of them remember Week 10? When the Chiefs came to Vegas and dropped 40? You think YOU earned the right to disrespect the guys who came into YOUR building and dropped 40 on your head with ease? The Raiders can’t even beat teams like the Washington Football Team and the Chicago Bears and they want to act all tough and crazy against the Chiefs. The Chiefs are a team that won a Super Bowl just a couple of years ago and the Raiders want to act like big dogs at 6-6 who haven’t been to the playoffs in half a decade and haven’t won a playoff game in almost two decades. They are so ignorant of their place in the league and got exactly what they deserved on Sunday. Long story short, the Raiders are idiots and I cannot wait to bet against them more in the future.
ME - My great friend Jabari Jefferson said it best when previewing a separate article featuring the Raiders. “The Raiders are trash.” This team is in an ultimate free fall with no guidance, and not much light at the end of the tunnel. An absolute freefall after starting the season 5-2 and leading the division. With an owner who seems checked out, a general manager in over his skis, a missing head coach and murderer for receiver who is now facing 50 to life, the Raiders are lost, and they will continue to lose in ugly fashion for the rest of this season. No more 50-yardline pregame huddles, please, Vegas.
Maxwell’s Hammer Em’ Home 5: (+1 Honey, I Bet the House)
WFT +4 VS Cowboys | 45% of the Bets | 47% of the $$ - Lose
ME - This game hurt, bad, as did the entire week. The misread falls on my lap. Sharps flipped the money on this game Sunday morning, and the public favorite Cowboys absolutely hammered Taylor Heinicke as if he had no business starting for an NFL franchise. Where I was right was that the Cowboys offense would struggle versus Washington on the road. The Washington football team maintained a 79.6 grade on PFF for rushing defense, and a 71.3 in coverage, both showing signs of a good day for the defense in today's modern NFL. Washington's defense even while losing Chase Young had stepped up the four weeks prior, so that wasn't much of a shock. Where I was wrong was how putrid the Washington Football Team's offense was this morning game, specifically Taylor Heinicke. He finished with passing for a 44% completion percentage, 122 yards, an interception, four sacks and a fumble lost at the hands of Micah Parsons. By far and away his worst game as a professional. If Kyle Allen played earlier in this game, Washington may have back-door covered at home due to Dak's bad 4th quarter interception. The Cowboys boast one of the best defensive fronts in football, due to the likes of Micah Parsons, Randy Gregory, Demarcus Lawrence and company, and it showed in this Washington Football Team's failure to move the chains on offense.
Lions +10 @ Broncos | 43% of the Bets | 23% of the $$ - Lose
ME - Not too much to say about this game. Detroit was thin at running back, playing against an incredible defensive mind in Vic Vangio, and lack playmakers and trench bodies on both sides of the ball to compete with a sound football team such as the Denver Broncos. The reason we bet this game is because that has been the case in every contest Detroit has played, and they're one of the best teams ATS (against the spread) this season. Some areas of football don’t make sense, and they don't have to. Dan Campbell's message has rung true to this bad Detroit Football Lions team, they will bite your kneecaps off on the way back to their feet, even at 1-11-1. Where I was wrong in this game was the homefield advantage that still exists for the Broncos at Mile High, in addition to having one of the best backfields in football, silently. Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams as a 1-2 punch has been one of the best tandems in football. The Broncos are 7-6, host a top 10 run game per PFF, and have dangerous weapons on the outside.
Bengals +1.5 VS Niners | 52% of the Bets | 38% of the $$ - Lose
ME - Overtime stinks for bettors. Unless you're praying for another opportunity to strike the -6 for the favorite to cover, there's nothing pretty about predicting a close game (Bengals +1.5) and watching your side lose by a touchdown due to overtime rules and styles. The Bengals, specifically Jamarr Chase came alive in the fourth quarter in an honorable comeback effort versus the 49ers. Both teams walked into overtime 20-20. There's not much to analyze here outside of the fact that we landed in overtime, and overtime rules don’t give a damn about your +1.5 spread.
Rams +2.5 @ Cardinals | 35% of the Bets | 57% of the $$ - Win
ME - Jalen Ramsey and Tyler Higbee were ruled out due to COVID-19 Regulations 11 hours before kickoff, and I was prepping myself for the worst week of my HEH5 young career. The humbling experience of COVID-19 finding ways to drop my mood, and my family and I have never contracted the virus, even. Thankfully, my pregame logic of "The Rams can't play this bad forever" came into fruition regardless. Divisional matchups can be tricky, but much more often than not, they're always competitive. What's interesting about this game is that it wasn't as competitive as the final score would make the audience presume. The Rams controlled this game throughout 3 quarters. Odell Beckham Jr. is finding his rhythm and way with Matt Stafford, Sean McVay is finding ways to get him and Van Jefferson the ball, and the defense held strong and made Kyler more uncomfortable than he's used to, which is very impressive without the best cornerback in football.
Steelers +3 @ Vikings | 49% of the Bets | 64% of the $$ - Lose
ME - Aren't we tired of the Jekyll and Hyde performances this year in the NFL? Maybe not as a fan, but as a bettor I am. The Steelers are talented enough to not only cover, but win this game as we saw in the 2nd half of the Football game, as they screamed back into life, not for the backdoor cover but an opportunity to strike overtime against another Jekyll and Hyde team in the Vikings. However, failures on 3rd down in the first half offensively and Dalvin Cook by his lonesome on the other side show a Steelers team who could lose to anyone decent, any given Sunday. If I had to place this bet again, I would absolutely take it. Meltdowns like we saw both the Steelers and the Vikings have in the 1st and 2nd halves, respectively, are rare in the NFL, I won't let this game cloud my judgement. We move on from a bad week dominated by the Public, as favorites won 10 out of 12 covers.
Kevin’s Hammer Em’ Home 5: (+1 Honey, I Bet the House)
Bucs -3.5 VS Bills | 63% of the Bets | 63% of the $$ - Win
KC - I do owe somewhat of an apology to the Buffalo Bills. They actually showed some fight and that they have a spine this week. They were also down 24-3 at one point in the game and were able to fight back and force overtime. They lost and the Bucs still covered, but the Buffalo Bills finally showed me some heart and I’m glad that they did.
Cardinals -2.5 VS Rams | 65% of the Bets | 43% of the $$ - Lose
KC - The Rams really came to play on Monday night. Jalen Ramsey was out on the COVID list, but it didn’t matter in the end. The Cardinals didn’t necessarily play poorly, this was more a case of the Rams taking control of the game and showing that they mean business. I don’t at all regret picking the Cardinals as both of these teams are fantastic and personally, I expect one of them to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. The Rams showed me how much of a threat they are, going on the road against a divisional opponent in primetime and taking home a win is huge and I will make sure not to take the Rams lightly in the future.
Ravens +2.5 @ Browns | 50% of the Bets | 23% of the $$ - Win
KC - I felt very confident with most of these, with the least of my confidence resting on the Baltimore Ravens. But Tyler Huntley. My lord and savior, Tyler Huntley, came through with the sneaky cover in a beautiful comeback attempt that brought the Ravens from being down 24-3 in the second quarter to finishing the game 24-22, covering the spread by just half a point. Honestly, I don’t know if the Ravens come back and cover this game if Lamar stays healthy. Something is seriously wrong with the Ravens offense and they need to fix it in a hurry if they want to be ready come playoffs. But I will take my blessing of a last second cover and I will forever be grateful to Tyler Huntley.
Falcons +2.5 @ Panthers | 60% of the Bets | 32% of the $$ - Win
KC - I never had a doubt about the Falcons covering against the Panthers, but I honestly didn’t really expect them to win and control the game the entire time. I loved Matt Rhule last year and going into this season, but he is losing me. Alternating quarterbacks Cam Newton and PJ Walker is just such a weird strategy that obviously didn’t work and Rhule is doubling down on it, saying on Monday morning that both quarterbacks will play next week. Alternating quarterbacks doesn’t allow either one to get into a rhythm and get a feel for the game. Firing Joe Brady is another decision that I find really strange, especially in the middle of the season. The Panthers have a lot of young talent, but they have a serious quarterback problem. I understand Rhule is just trying to do something to get the offense going, but it clearly isn’t working. This problem started with the Panthers putting their faith in Sam Darnold as their quarterback for the season and now they will reap what they sow.