The State of the AFC: The 2022 Conquest Begins
In this article, Jabari Jefferson, Steven Houston, Kevin Coffee and Maxwell Egbujor (Max is Loaded) come together to breakdown the state of the AFC with the NFL 2022 regular season around the corner this Thursday, September 8th. Be expecting our NFC sister piece coming soon as well!
AFC North - Maxwell Egbujor
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have officially named Mitch Trubisky as the franchise’s starting quarterback going into the 2022 NFL season. It makes sense; Mike Tomlin is a certified winner; he and freshly hired general manager Omar Khan believe this roster has the talent to compete for 1st place in a tough AFC North. Mitch was also named team captain, leaving 1st round rookie Kenny Pickett as the number 2. Mitch being named a team captain is essential here; it could mean that the leash on his tenure as starting QB in Pittsburg isn’t as short as expected. The Steeler’s defense should be coming in strong, with a dangerous pass rush lead by TJ Watt and Cameron Heyward, two Pro-bowl, All-League level players, ready to lead a young defense into a transformative top-10 unit. The offense will be led by Najee Harris, who’s proven he can carry the hopes and aspirations of a franchise for 25+ carries a game. Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth will be an adept receiving core. This team has playoff contender potential but will only go as far as Mitch Trubisky can take them with his right arm and legs. This is my 3rd place team in the AFC North, barely missing the playoffs, as I believe the AFC West will take 3 playoff spots in the same division.
Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens need to be respected as super bowl contenders this season. The work that John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson outputted to keep the Ravens afloat and at the top of the AFC was remarkable until Lamar Jackson fell victim to the rampant injury bug that plagued the entire franchise. Marlon Humphreys, Marcus Peters, Rashod Batemen, Miles Boykin, Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, and Ronnie Staley, to name a few, were all out for extended periods or on IR in the 2021 season. The roster that led the AFC until Week 11 will come alive this season with Lamar Jackson at the helm, and the AFC should be worried. The Ravens are my AFC North division winners.
Cleveland Browns
4th place this season is exactly what this franchise deserves for the methodology behind gaining Deshaun Watson’s talents. Deshaun Watson portrayed bizarre and grotesque behavior, leading to a twice-determined 11-game suspension alongside a hefty $5 million fine, allowing him to return in Week 13 against his former team, the Houston Texans. The Cleveland Browns should not be immediately rewarded for offering the Texans and Deshaun Watson an offer they can not refuse, for a player in the limelight for all of the wrong reasons. The Cleveland Browns traded a massive package of players and picks for Deshaun and proceeded to lock up their quarterback of the future by offering him the largest contract in NFL history. 5 years, $230 million, fully guaranteed. At least while in NFL shape, Deshaun Watson is one of the brightest and best quarterbacks in football; however, rewarding his behavior with the largest contract in NFL history, fully guaranteed, did not bode well with fans and the competing franchises alike. This NFL suspension was necessary as a lesson needed to be learned here. Jacoby Brissett, a proven backup, will lead the Browns during Deshaun’s absence. Their predicted 4th place positioning in the division is their deserved cycle this season.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals were two minutes away and a Matt Stafford-Cooper Kupp-led drive away from being Super Bowl Champions in one of the most unexpected fashions in history. A team in 2021 with a below-average offensive line and a plethora of weapons managed to have the 8th ranked offense via PFF and 10 wins. They went on to win 3 unexpected thrillers in the AFC gauntlet, leading to a super bowl appearance and loss and our current position today. Joe Burrow is him, and he will continue to be that person until his final breath leaves his body. The Bengals must continue to protect the face of the franchise with better O-Line play, as their pass block grade via PFF was ranked 29/32 last season. Luckily, that didn’t stop Joe Burrow from being the highest-rated Quarterback in football last season via PFF, earning a 0.1 edge over Tom Brady, ranked 91.8 and 91.7, respectively. If the young and fast defensive unit continues to build on the promise shown last year, the Bengals can continue competing with the Ravens for the top dog in the division. Super Bowl appearance hangover can be real but look for the Bengals competing for the same right to party as last season.
AFC West - Jabari Jefferson
Denver Broncos:
The Denver Broncos are the wild card in this division. Since the retirement of Peyton Manning in 2015, the Broncos have been in the quarterback carousel, having started ten different quarterbacks. But that carousel has come to end after acquiring Super Bowl-winning quarterback Russel Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks. The Broncos have a very talented roster loaded with young weapons offensively and a stout defense. The Broncos also play a fourth-place schedule which will help due to the fact that half of their games will be against the best division in football, the AFC West. My concerns with the Broncos start with Russell Wilson. Russ is a tremendous quarterback and will one day be in the Hall of Fame. But, Russ has shown to have a dip in play in the second half of seasons. In the 2020 season, Willson saw a decline in QBR from 139.0 in the month of September to 87.8 in the month of January according to The Football Database. I believe that on any given Sunday, the Broncos could be the best team in football. But with a new head coach and Russ’s decline down the stretch of the season, it is something that I will have to see work as the season progresses.
(Floor: 9-8 | Ceiling: 12-5)
Los Angeles Chargers:
As much as I don’t like the Chargers, on paper they have one of the best rosters out of the entire NFL. This offseason, the Chargers added former defensive player of the year Khalil Mack, and ball hawk J.C. Jackson at corner. These additions to go with pro bowlers Derwin James and Joey Bosa puts the chargers in contention to have a top-five defense in the league. My only concerns with the Chargers are at the Right tackle position and the linebacker positions. The Chargers starting right tackle ranked in the bottom half of all tackles with a 60.3 grade and no returning Chargers linebacker had a grade over 70 according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). Though they have some deficiencies, the Chargers have a Super Bowl-caliber roster led by one of the best young quarterbacks in the league Justin Herbert. If things fall right, the Chargers are the favorite to win the division and have a great shot at getting to the AFC Championship game.
(Floor: 10-7 | Ceiling: 12-5)
Kansas City Chiefs:
The Kansas City Chiefs might be the most interesting team in the division. For the first time in recent history, the reigning six-peat AFC West champions might have their worst supporting cast in recent years and also in the AFC West. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is still there and they still have the play caller in the league in Andy Reid, but this will be the most challenging task that they will have faced in the small stint that they have been together. My main concern for the Chiefs is more so with their defense. In recent years the Chiefs have lived by the bend but don't break defensive mentality and it has most definitely worked. But, with the losses of corner Charvarius Ward and pro bowler Tyrann Mathieu, the Chiefs have their worst defense in the Mahomes era and are now in the best division in football. Offensively, I do believe the loss of All-Pro Tyreek Hill will have an impact on the offense to start the season, but once Andy Reid figures out how to integrate new weapons Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the Chiefs offense will be in perfect shape to contend for the AFC West title once again.
(Floor: 10-7 | Ceiling: 12-5)
Las Vegas Raiders:
Writing this brief soliloquy hurts my heart due to the fact that this is the best roster I have seen my team have in my entire life, yet it comes at a time when the division is one of the best divisions in football that we have seen in NFL history (on paper of course). I have gone back and forth about how I feel about this team all summer and I think I have found peace in my feelings. The Raiders’ offensive weapons are undeniable. This offseason the Raiders added the best receiver in football, Devante Adams, and paired him with a top 3 tight end in Darren Waller and one of the best slot receivers in Hunter Renfrow who is coming off a Pro Bowl season. Not only that, Adams is now reconnected with his college quarterback and best friend Derek Carr. To top things off the Raiders now have a new head coach in Josh McDaniels who just so happens to be a top-five play caller in the NFL. Do you see my excitement? With all that being said the Raiders have a strong chance of coming in last in the division. The offensive line is suspect (this is me being generous) and outside of pass rushers Maxx Crosby and free agent acquisition Chandler Jones, the newly led defense under Patrick Graham leaves a lot of room to be desired. If the Raiders want a shot at making the playoffs again, let alone the division title, their defense will have to create a lot of turnovers and somehow patch up a decent offensive line so Carr will have time to get the ball to his top-tier weapons.
(Floor: 9-8 | Ceiling: 11-6)
AFC East - Steven Houston
New York Jets
The New York Jets posted a season to forget last year, finishing 4-13 and helping themselves achieve the fourth overall pick in this year’s draft. Cincinnati star (DB) Sauce Gardner was selected to lead the helm of the rebuild on the defensive side for second-year HC Robert Salah. He would not come alone with talented Ohio State (WR) Garrett Wilson being selected not too long after. The Jets grabbed additional reinforcements in Duane Brown and Laken Tomlinson to bolster their vastly improved offensive line, along with CJ Uzomah and DJ Reed to fill some holes. The losses of (S) Marcus Maye and (OL) Morgan Moses will sting, but their struggles were predictable last year and not much has changed. A scary preseason injury to (QB) Zach Wilson leaves this team in jeopardy of following down the same path and finishing 5-12.
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins were unable to ride the wave of their seven-game win streak into the postseason last year. We discussed the potential of the Dolphins heading into this season in last year’s article, claiming that this young, cap-flexible team would bounce back next season into true contention. We were not wrong, as the Dolphins found a way to acquire NFL superstars (WR) Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs and (OL) Terron Armstead via free agency. Only seeing minimal departures in the roster, aside from HC Brian Flores’ firing, new HC Mike McDaniel has a fast and explosive football team to lead to stardom. Do not be surprised in a make-or-break year for (QB) Tua Tagovailoa if the Dolphins steal second in the division at 10-7.
Buffalo Bills
Heads or Tails? That question arguably decided the fate of the Buffalo Bills’ postseason aspirations. A team that seemed destined to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since Jim Kelly’s famous ‘Four Falls of Buffalo’ teams in the early 1990s. Bills fans will look forward to this season after securing the services of Super Bowl champion (LB) Von Miller in free agency. The recent drama of released (P) Matt Araiza should not hinder this team from putting themselves back into Super Bowl contention. Losing OC Brian Daboll will have a greater impact in that regard, but all signs point towards Ken Dorsey who has been with the team since 2019, being able to fill that role with ease. A potential best record in the NFL is in play for the (QB) Josh Allen-led Bills who I have projected to go 13-4.
New England Patriots
If you read our State of the AFC 2021: The Home Stretch, then you would have seen this coming with the New England Patriots. At one point boasting the hottest team in the NFL winning seven games straight, everything came crashing down late last year. “Too good to be true. Limit your expectations for this team. Brutal playoff exit imminent.” Do not say I did not warn you. Their big offseason addition came via trade for former Miami Dolphins (WR) Devante Parker. The Patriots 2022 draft night was seen as wildly controversial, with the team ‘reaching’ on players projected to go much later in the draft. This is almost as controversial as the mystery behind the team’s play-callers heading into this year, with a reported struggling sophomore (QB) Mac Jones affected by the coaching turnover. The team saw two of the biggest free agents walk out the door in (DB) JC Jackson and (OL) Ted Karras. From hero to zero in true fashion, the Patriots finally came back down to Earth in a division that is ascending to the moon. Expect the Patriots to finish in the range of 9-8.
AFC South - Kevin Coffee
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are coming off a late season collapse, courtesy of Carson Wentz, that saw them just miss the playoffs last season. They unloaded Wentz to Washington and brought in Matt Ryan to hopefully capitalize on the most talented roster in the division. While I personally don’t have a lot of faith in Matt Ryan, he’s an upgrade over Wentz and the Colts clearly have the best roster in the AFC South, which is unquestionably the Colts division to lose. With Jonathan Taylor, an elite defense, and a strong offensive line the Colts should have no problem racking up an 11-6 record.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans are the only team in the division that didn’t get better this off-season. Most of their roster is returning from their 12-win season last year, however, AJ Brown got traded to the Eagles and the Titans drafted Treylon Burks as his replacement, which is a clear downgrade. Derrick Henry will be returning after a foot injury shut him down last season, but the Titans continue to roll with a “just good enough to not replace” quarterback in Ryan Tannehill. With the other teams in the AFC South improving, I expect the Titans’ win total to decrease and I think they end up with a 9-8 record.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars had the worst record in the league last year and have nowhere to go but up. While they still made some very typical Jaguars moves this offseason (I’m looking at you Christian Kirk), they at least brought in a real adult at head coach. Super Bowl champion Doug Pederson is taking over the team and will have his chance to mold Trevor Lawrence into an elite quarterback. There aren’t too many additions of note for the Jaguars, but Pederson alone is a huge get for them and if he can get Trevor Lawrence on the right path, then the future is extremely bright in Jacksonville. I think the Jags will double their 2021 win total and end the season 6-11.
Houston Texans
The Texans are in Year 2 of Nick Caserio’s roster rebuild and have made significant improvements to the secondary and offensive line. After struggling to only 4 wins last season, the Texans are hoping to improve with Davis Mills in his second season. And Davis Mills is really the key to the Texans’ 2022 season. They’ve improved the offensive line and drafted Dameon Pierce to strengthen their run game but none of it matters if Davis Mills fails. While making improvements to the roster will help a little, the Texans still aren’t close to being a playoff-caliber team. While I expect them to be a little better than most people think, I think they end up going 7-10 this year.
