The State of the AFC 2021: The Home Stretch
In this article, Team Loaded comes together to breakdown the current state of the AFC with 14 weeks of football complete. How have teams arrived at this point, and what comes next?
AFC North - Maxwell Egbujor
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have taken top consideration for one of the craziest Jekyll and Hyde experiences of 2021. The eye test and numbers show at the end of the day, that this is an average team with tremendous pass rushing potency. Performances like we've seen against the Bengals on both accounts would have you think that Big Ben should retire (and that rumor is floating around this season strong), while performances against teams like the Ravens, Broncos, and in the 2nd half of the Vikings game make you question why this team isn't on top of their division. PFF has this team rated as a below average team, 25th in overall grade, 26th in passing offense and 26th in rushing. There's no consistency with this team, Big Ben is a shell of his Hall of Fame self, and the offensive line is too inexperienced to provide consistency to the offense. For this team to reach the playoffs at 6-6-1, they would need to win out against the Titans, Chiefs, Browns and Ravens. I predict that we'll be seeing this franchise enjoying the playoffs with the fans on the couch.
Baltimore Ravens
This organization deserves it's credit. No other team in football has featured the consistent injury list that the Ravens have dealt with all season. The injury report for week 15 features 15 players, including Lamar Jackson, Calais Campbell and Hollywood Brown. That doesn't even include the COVID-19 Exempt list. Ever since the Ravens hot streak of 5 games in the beginning of the season, the injury bug has plagued their play. Lamar Jackson began the season looking like one of the most electrifying players to grace the sport per usual, however illnesses and injuries has slowed his tracks. They're ranked 16th overall per PFF at 8-5, trending downwards since week 7. This team will still make the playoffs, but due to the season ending injuries felt across the board, this team will only go as far as Lamar Jackson goes. We'll see if this roster regains the same fear factor they've placed in the AFC when hot.
Cleveland BRowns
Another franchise riddled by injury, however let's add a sprinkle of drama and average quarterback play. Kevin Stefanski the former Coach of the Year has pushed through one of the most frustrating seasons he's dealt with as a head coach. The team sits at 7-6 with frustration, as they host one of the best overall rosters in football. The offensive line is ranked 5th by PFF, and the defense has shown massive improvement from last season, being led by the likes of Myles Garrett who is in line to win DPOY, and Denzel Ward, a rising shutdown corner. However, Baker Mayfield has dealt with injuries since the beginning of the season, taking his more average QB play to a step below. Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb have both missed time, and the Baker-OBJ connection never came into fruition. Odell Beckham Jr now catches touchdowns again for Matt Stafford and the Rams, a wonderful sight for many football fans. The team is ranked 7th overall by PFF, and I predict them to make the playoffs, however they may be a one and done team depending on the matchup. This run-first ground and pound Dawg pound cannot come across a team with a great run defense.
Cincinatti Bengals
Joe Burrow is the truth, and the Bengals are doing well to place weapons and protection around him to allow him to set the foundation for the future. This team has dropped unfortunate games against teams like the Bears and the Jets, however I've seen crazier things happen this season in football. At 7-6, this receiving core is explosive, the Quarterback is a franchise foundation, Joe Mixon provides stability in the backfield, and the defense is young and fast. They are ranked 6th overall by PFF and 2nd in passing grade, all while still ranked in the top 11 rushing the football. This offense can explode on you any given Sunday, any given half, any given quarter, any given drive, and they will shock a franchise if they make the playoffs, and they will. The task of guarding Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Jamarr Chase is daunting when the Quarterback is often firing on all cylinders.
AFC West - Jabari Jefferson
Denver Broncos: (Find A Captain To Steer The Ship)
There has been a revolving door at the quarterback position in Denver since the retirement of Peyton Manning. There have been nine quarterbacks that have started for the Broncos since 2015 and though Teddy Bridgewater (who is the ninth starting quarterback) has them sitting a game over .500, there is still more to be desired from the Quarterback position. According to PFF the Broncos rank 10th in rushing and 20th in passing. Throwing draft picks and free agents at the position have not been working and it is now time for John Elway to become aggressive and go get a quarterback that will elevate the Broncos into championship contention. The Broncos have drafted a young nucleus that includes players such as Jerry Juedy, Justin Simmons and Bradely Chubb that is waiting to be directed by a true leader. Denver should be on the lookout for any quarterbacks that are looking to get out of their current situation. Keep an eye out this offseason as you might see the Broncos attached to top tier quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson.
Los Angeles Chargers: (Cash in on Justin Herberts Early Success)
The Los Angeles Chargers have a star in the making at the quarterback position with Justin Herbert. Since entering the league, Herbert has thrown for over 4,000 yards, 30 touchdowns completing 66% of his passes and is PFF’s 3rd ranked quarterback this season. The Chargers are in the perfect situation to make a run for a superbowl in the coming years. They are in a big market (Los Angeles), with brand new facilities and a roster that has been built well through the draft and free agency with a lot of young and veteran talent. Los Angeles needs to continue to add depth through free agency and the draft to their secondary and additional pass rush to help complement young stars Joey Bosa, Derwin James and a high powered offense that is ranked number 4 in points scored this season, per PFF. The Chargers have 2 more years before Justin Hebert will be looking for a contract extension, and in that time, Los Angeles should be looking to be aggressive in free agency and trading for valuable defensive assets as they look to cash in while Justin Herbert is still on his rookie deal.
Kansas City Chiefs: (Stop the Defense From Sinking The Ship)
The Kansas City Chiefs have been an absolute offensive juggernaut since Patrick Mahomes took the reins in 2018. According to ESPN their offensive rankings have been 1st, 6th, 1st and 3rd (currently) since that moment. With two superbowl appearances and three AFC championship game appearances, the Chiefs have put together one of the most immaculate offensive stretches in a four year span we have seen. The run has been so impressive, that we nearly forgot how lackluster their defense has been. In this four year span, the Chiefs have ranked 31st, 17th, 16th, and currently sit as the 25th ranked defense this year, per ESPN. Though their defense has improved since the start of the season, we can not ignore what we have seen. This offseason, the Kansas City Chiefs must address their defensive holes. Improvements to their pass rush to help the interior push that Chris Jones provides and also to their linebacking core would be tremendous help to propel the chiefs defense from being below average.
Las Vegas Raiders: (Time to Sell the Carr)
After starting the season 5-2, the Raiders are 1-5 in their last six and are now 6-7 on the season. This is now the 3rd season in a row where the Raiders entered the bye week with a record over .500 only to end the season with a losing/even record. On and off the field this season has been a disaster. Due to the firing of former Head Coach Jon Gruden and the shocking events involving Henry Ruggs, it is time for a new start for the Las Vegas Raiders. With a new head coach and coaching staff coming this offseason, the Raiders should try and ship Derek Carr to the highest bidder. Though Derek Carr isn’t at fault for the raiders' struggles this season, it is time to move on from the 30 year old. Carr is PFF’s 13th ranked quarterback with a grade of 79.3 and is currently number four in passing yards per ESPN. The Raiders quarterback is having one of his better seasons of his career and deserves a fresh start from a franchise that hasn’t been able to provide him the requisite pieces for him to win. With Carr looking for a new extension and a new regime looming, the Raiders should be looking for a total reboot and the only way that can happen is with the shipment of Derek Carr.
AFC East - Steven Houston
New York Jets
A very underwhelming season from the New York Jets, who in the off-season boasted the front of having the new kids on the block. The QB-Head Coach duo of number two overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft, Zach Wilson, and highly respected former Forty Niners Defensive Coordinator, Robert Salah, have failed to meet the flashy expectations of the big city. Lifeless at 3-10, Wilson’s play has helped contribute handsomely to the 29th ranked offense in the NFL. More importantly, the ice cold offense hasn’t helped the Jets defense who are allowing the most points scored in the NFL (397) across 13 games, averaging 30 points against each week, according to PFF. Is there any hope for the New York green faithful? No, absolutely not. Not this season at least. With 4 games remaining against the likes of Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and Buffalo, they would be very fortunate to walk away with a scrappy win over the slightly more disastrous Jacksonville Jaguars.
Miami Dolphins
Moving onto the brighter side of the AFC East, figuratively and literally, well in some cases that is, the Miami Dolphins. The warm, sunny Florida side is seeing happier days each week as an organization that is 6-7 on the year. One of the hottest teams in football, only being second to their division rivals the New England Patriots (which we will get to later), the Miami Dolphins currently hold a 5 game consecutive win streak. This is largely due in part to their weaker schedule, having played Houston, Baltimore, Carolina, and both New York franchises in their last 5 competitions. More credit is also due to their young talented QB, Tua Tagovailoa, who has been able to stay on the field and play some of the cleanest football of his progressing career, with only 1 turnover in their win streak. Is the future as bright as the weather down in Florida for the Miami Dolphins? The future is indeed bright, just not this season unfortunately. The Dolphins close out the regular season with must win games against the Titans and Patriots, who will also be playing for playoff positioning. A young and salary cap flexible team, the Miami Dolphins can be seen as more of a true contender starting next season.
Buffalo Bills
And just like that we’ve found ourselves back in the blistering winter cold, but this time for the Buffalo Bills. Some will argue the 7-6 Bills are still a top contender to represent the AFC come Super Bowl time, to which I would not necessarily disagree. However, the Bills have failed to build a consistent resume since their Week 9 dud against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Their outings that followed against the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts would have fooled you by just looking at the box scores. A team that was once rated as the 2nd ranked offense and 1st rated defense prior to Week 9, have now slipped to the 6th rated offense and 3rd rated defense in the NFL, according to PFF, to go along with two crucial, heart-breaking defeats to the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bills will be given a chance at redemption in their Week 16 life or death rematch against the Patriots, but they must have their eyes set on winning out the rest of the season and not just the revenge game if they want to be as good as they and/or their fans say.
New England Patriots
Alas, we reach the top of the mountain and with that, the top of the AFC. The New England Patriots are currently the division and conference leaders at a surprising record of 9-4, after a multitude of shocking moves, including winning their last 7 consecutive games. The first shock move was spending the most guaranteed money in free agency during the last off-season by guaranteeing $163 million dollars, surpassing division rivals the Miami Dolphins’ $147 million in 2020. The next shocking play the franchise made to go with the free agent spending frenzy was cutting Cam Newton, in favor of throwing rookie QB and 15th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, Mac Jones, straight into the fire. A rocky 2-4 start had many experts and analysts curious as to whether the once renowned franchise had made the right decisions in the post-TB12 era. Can we buy the Patriots stock moving forward into high stakes territory? According to ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index), the franchise is given a 46.1% chance to represent the AFC as the top seed come playoff time. My take? An elite run game supported by protected play calling from Offensive Coordinator, Josh McDaniels, and above-par game management from Mac Jones to go with Head Coach, Bill Belichick and his 1st ranked defense are almost too good to be true. And in my eyes, it is too good to be true. Be careful of carrying high expectations for this team in the land of the experienced come playoff battle time, for I fear a brutal playoff exit for the post-TB12 era Patriots.
AFC South - Adam Booth
Oh what to write about these teams. Fortunately as a Colts fan, spanning nearly two decades of playing these teams and watching them, it has been total domination from the Colts. As of 2021, this division is… not good.
Indianapolis Colts
*sigh* This team can be so much better. With the addition of trading for Carson Wentz, he’s been nothing short of great for them so far. In the season, he has 22 Touchdowns to only, and this is REALLY key, 5 interceptions. Luckily, they’re 7-6 and control their own destiny largely in part by the best *healthy* running back in the league, Jonathan Taylor. This guy is just fun to watch, he has 1,348 rushing yards for the season with 18 total touchdowns for the year. The Colts got off to a slow start, starting 1-4, but somehow they’re offense got it going. Overall, they’re ranked 1st in Turnover differential with a +13. Since November 1st, they’ve scored the most points per game at 33.1. The key for them to get into the playoffs, using their mantra ever since Frank Reich took over: Run. The. Damn. Ball. I do believe this team squeaks into the playoffs in part by the AFC being wide open and the Colts having a favorable schedule down the stretch along with a HUGE matchup against their rival Patriots.
Tennessee Titans
I have to give credit where credit is due. The Titans team is maybe… legit? They’re currently sitting on top of the division at 9-4 and hey, they’re deserving of that. They’re ranked 13th in total offense and 12th in total defense. They’ve had to overcome the injuries of literally all of their best players on offense with Julio Jones, AJ Brown, and Derrick Henry (Sorry Derrick, there’s a new Running back coming for that crown) which should’ve slowed down the team but no, they’ve kept their poise. Even with Tannehill playing a bit shaky, 14 touchdowns to 13 interceptions (yuck), they’re still looking to win the division for their second straight season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Now we get to the really fun part of this section. Where do I start? I’ll start here: Shad Khan hiring Urban Meyer. Urban Meyer. Hahahaha this franchise never seems to do anything right. The scary part is wasting the talent of Trevor Lawrence. But, that doesn’t go to say that Trevor has been abysmal this year. He has a 58% completion percentage with 9 touchdowns to 14 int’s for his rookie campaign. Now, the question that remains is, is this Trevor’s fault or the team’s fault? My guess is more so the team, but Trevor has made some terrible decisions this year. The last game against the Titans on December 12th, they didn’t score a single point and Lawrence threw, not one, not two, not three, but FOUR interceptions. Not only do I believe the hiring, and firing, of Urban Meyer not only sets the team back, but sets back the development of Lawrence as well. This team not too long ago made it to the AFC Championship and were actually *checks that game* winning that game against the Patriots! The future seemed somewhat bright in part of that scary defense they once had but decided to blow it all up. I’m not sure where they go from here, but one thing is for sure, the firing of Urban Meyer was the right decision.
Houston Texans
This team is funny. Sad? Nah nah nah, they’re funny. I’ll tell you why. Let’s say, you had a generational talent at Wide Receiver. I’m talking about a three-time first team All-Pro and formerly a league leader in Touchdowns-generational talent. You would think that generational talent is something to build around, right? Not according to the Belichick, know it all disciple that is Bill O’Brien. He decides to trade said Generational Talent to the Cardinals for Running Back David Johnson, a 2020 second round pick, and a 2021 fourth round pick. Just typing that made me laugh. They’ve managed to stumble down to the laughing stocks of the NFL along with the Giants and Jets of the league all because of one man’s ego. By the way, the franchise still has no idea about when their franchise QB Deshaun Watson is coming back pending a scandal of sexual assault allegations with a total of 22 women. Oh right, I was supposed to write about this team’s season and how they’re doing. They’re last or bottom 3 in every statistical category and the organization has no idea what the future holds for them.
